DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

May corn closed up 1 1/2 cents per bushel and December corn was up 1 3/4 cents. May soybeans closed up 2 3/4 cents and November soybeans were up 2 1/4 cents. May K.C. wheat closed up 4 1/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was up 3 1/2 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was up 1 cent. The June U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.191 at 95.960. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 69.37 points at 25,432.95. April gold is up $11.60 at $1,323.90, May silver is up $0.18 at $15.59 and May copper is up $0.0165 at $2.8590. May crude oil is up $0.01 at $59.05, May heating oil is up $0.0147, May RBOB is up $0.0034 and May natural gas is up $0.002.

Corn:

May corn ended up 1 1/2 cents at $3.79 3/4 Monday, holding support near its highest prices in March with help from last week's corn purchase from China and concerns about how planting season will go this spring given March flooding in the Western Corn Belt. At the same time, corn crops in South America are doing well with favorable crop moisture in Brazil and Argentina's harvest starting to make progress. Here in the U.S., export activity has slowed after a strong start in 2018-19. Monday's report from USDA showed 39.2 million bushels (mb) of corn inspected for export last week, below the 53 mb needed to reach USDA's export estimate of 2.375 bb by the end of August. So far in 2018-19, total inspections are up 23% from a year ago. Even if more export business was available, transporting corn remains difficult with flooding issues plaguing the nation's waterways. Fundamentally, the outlook for corn prices is neutral and the anticipation of big crops in South America is bearish. Technically, the trend in cash corn is up with support from commercial net longs and plenty of uncertainty about the year ahead. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.51 Friday, 28 cents below the May contract and back near its highest price in nine months. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.19 and outside commodities are mostly higher.

Soybeans:

May soybeans were up 2 3/4 cents at $9.06 1/2 Monday on light volume. Soybean futures continue to hold steady as U.S. trade representatives head to China later this week, in hopes of working out a trade deal. Several media sources continue to say the topic of intellectual property rights remains a difficult obstacle and it is not clear if a mutually agreeable solution can be found. Early Monday, USDA said 31.5 mb of soybeans were inspected for export last week, less than the 35 mb needed to achieve USDA's export goal by the end of August. Aside from trade, another concern for soybean demand is the spread of African swine fever in China and Vietnam. According to Dow Jones, China imported 4.46 mmt (164 mb) of soybeans in February, down 18% from a year ago and adding to concerns that China's feed demand will be lower in 2019. Also reported by Dow Jones, the private consultant AgRural said 67% of Brazil's soybeans have been harvested, roughly on its usual pace, in spite of wet weather. Fundamentally, soybean prices have many bearish concerns in 2019, kept on hold by the uncertainty of trade talks and the uncertainty of a new season ahead. Technically, both cash and soybean futures prices are holding sideways with commercial net longs offering support. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.16 Friday, 87 cents below the May contract and holding in a narrow, sideways range.

Wheat:

May K.C. wheat closed up 4 1/4 cents Monday at $4.49 1/4, continuing to work up from the $4.18 1/4 low made earlier in March, while warmer temperatures usher in spring in the southwestern U.S. Plains. NASS crop ratings have been favorable for Kansas so far, but after wet fall planting conditions and some bouts of sub-freezing temperatures this winter, we may learn more in the weeks ahead. Early Monday, USDA said 12.5 mb of wheat were inspected for export last week, well below the 28 mb needed to reach USDA's 965 mb export estimate by May 31. Fundamentally speaking, it is difficult to be bullish about winter wheat prices while U.S. wheat supplies are plentiful and HRW wheat exports remain sluggish. Technically, the trends in cash HRW and SRW wheat remain down, while the trend in cash HRS wheat is challenging the upper end of its sideways range. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.30 Friday, 15 cents under the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.41, also up from its lowest prices in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman

(CZ)

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