DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

May corn closed down 1/4 cent per bushel and December corn was up 1/2 cent. May soybeans closed down 1 3/4 cents and November soybeans were down 3/4 cent. May K.C. wheat closed down 3/4 cent, May Chicago wheat was down 1/4 cent and May Minneapolis wheat was up 4 1/2 cents. The June U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.15 at 95.83. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 21 points at 25,935. April gold is up $5.60 at $1,313.30, May silver is up $0.06 at $15.38 and May copper is up $0.0135 at $2.9225. April crude oil is down $0.16 at $58.93, April heating oil is up $0.0192, April RBOB is up $0.0084 and April natural gas is up $0.018.

Corn:

May corn ended down a quarter-cent at $3.71 1/4 Tuesday, continuing to encounter light bearish pressure, while corn crops in Brazil and Argentina benefit from favorable conditions. Here in the U.S., there are a lot of questions about how corn planting will go this spring with flooding prominent throughout much of the Midwest, but so far traders have shown no bullish response to the problem. March 29 is less than two weeks away when USDA will reveal its producer survey of prospective plantings, taken in the first two weeks of March. To say the survey will be flawed is an understatement as severe flooding began in the Western Corn Belt on March 6, in the middle of the survey. The March 1 Grain Stocks report will be of interest, but will not reflect grain loss until the June 1 report is released at the end of June. Other than knowing the U.S. will face more export competition from South America in the year ahead, there remains plenty of uncertainty about how the corn market will go in 2019. For now, the trend in cash corn is sideways. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.43 Monday, 28 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest price in over three months. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.15 and other commodities are mostly higher.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed down 1 3/4 cents at $9.04 Tuesday, likely pressured by more noncommercial selling after going over a week without any daily export sales announcements from USDA. The most recent weekly export sales report showed total soybean commitments down 16% from a year ago and in spite of unconfirmed talk of big ag purchases looming from China, an actual trade agreement remains out of reach. Fundamentally, the concerns for soybean prices lean bearish with Argentina back in the game with a larger soybean crop in 2019 and making up for a 4.3 mmt (158 mb) reduction in Brazil's production. USDA's estimate of 900 mb of U.S. ending soybean stocks in 2018-19 is also a bearish weight on prices that is at risk of going higher if hoped-for exports don't come through. For now, the trend in cash soybeans remains sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.19 Monday, 87 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May K.C. wheat closed down 3/4 cent Tuesday at $4.35 3/4, a quiet day of trading on low volume. As with soybeans, U.S. wheat could use more export business, but so far, that is not happening in a significant way. Some winter wheat areas were likely affected by recent flooding in the western U.S. Plains, but most were not. Late Monday, USDA said only 11% of winter wheat in Kansas was rated poor or very poor -- a good start after experiencing wet weather at planting time last fall. Kansas and southern Nebraska were getting some light rain Tuesday with more moderate amounts expected in the Southern Plains the next seven days. It is still early in 2019, but so far, most major winter wheat areas are reporting favorable conditions, helping to keep potential buyers uninterested. With U.S. wheat supplies plentiful, the trends in cash HRW and SRW wheat remain down, while the trend in cash HRS wheat is holding sideways. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.20 Monday, 17 cents under the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.30, also up from its lowest prices in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman

(CZ)

Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.