DTN Closing Livestock Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS: Some very light trade developed in parts of Nebraska Friday afternoon at prices fully steady with Thursday's business and the week prior ($205 dressed/$128 live). It is looking like Southern trade is essentially completed for the week, but that we may see a few more deals in the North. Asking prices on cattle left on showlists are around $130 live and $207 dressed. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.08 lower ($41-$45.50, weighted average $44.80). Corn futures settled fractionally lower, pushed by a bearish but unsurprising monthly supply-and-demand report that raised ending stocks projections by 100 million bushels. The stock market dipped 2% this week, with the S&P 500 ending at 2,743.

LIVE CATTLE: For the week, April live cattle were up $0.13 and the June contract was up $0.53. Gains persisted through Friday's session, with contracts $0.600 to $0.750 higher at the close. Speculative futures traders continue to chase the higher trend and hold net-long positions, but their buying interest Friday didn't push the market to any fresh contract highs. Beef cut-outs: higher, up $0.17 (select, $218.54) to up $1.11 (choice, $226.04) with moderate to fairly good demand and light offerings (106 total loads of cuts, trimmings, and grinds).

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Monday's activity will be limited to the collection of new showlists. Packers won't feel urgency to meet the higher asking prices ($207 dressed/$130 live) after seeing expanded cold storage inventories this week.

FEEDER CATTLE: For the week, March feeder cattle futures gained $2.70 and April gained $2.65. That April contract posted impressive gains of $1.700 on Friday alone, although it stalled at a resistance level, $147.850, and may go back to being range-bound in future sessions. The Feb. 1 Cattle on Feed report, which was delayed to Friday due to the partial government shutdown, showed 11.7 million head of cattle and calves on feed, just barely above year-ago numbers. Placements during January at 1.96 million head were 95% of year-ago numbers, all of which could be met with a neutral market reaction next week. CME cash feeder index for 03/07: $140.03, up $0.27.

LEAN HOGS: For the week, April lean hog futures gained $4.15 and May gained $3.00. A friendly cold storage report on Thursday showed impressive disappearance of overall frozen pork supplies, down 3% from a year ago at this time. Some speculative futures traders seem to be moving away from their bearish net-short positions on the idea that February's volatile lows may have put a floor under this market. Carcass value this week experienced higher movement, still supported by hams and bellies. Pork cut-out: $64.25, up $1.19. Bellies: $115.11, up $2.65.CME cash lean index for 03/06: $51.75, down $0.10.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 higher. Hog buyers are expected to resume work Monday with generally firm bids.

Elaine Kub can be reached at elaine@masteringthegrainmarkets.com

(CZ)

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