DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

March corn closed up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December corn was up 2 1/4 cents. March soybeans closed up 2 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 1 3/4 cents. March K.C. wheat closed up 9 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 7 3/4 cents and March Minneapolis wheat was up 5 1/2 cents. The March U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.001 at 95.305. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 15.89 points at 25,015.56. April gold is down $3.00 at $1,322.20, March silver is down $0.16 at $15.91 and March copper is down $0.0170 at $2.7675. March crude oil is up $1.24 at $55.03, March heating oil is up $0.0285, March RBOB is up $0.0529 and March natural gas is down $0.070.

For the week:

March corn closed down 2 cents and December 2019 corn was down 1 cent. March soybeans were down 7 1/2 cents while November 2019 soybeans were down 7 cents. March Kansas City wheat was down 3/4 cent, March Chicago wheat was up 4 1/4 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was up 3/4 cent.

Corn:

March corn closed up 1 3/4 cents at $3.78 1/4 Friday, but finished the week down 2 cents. The past three months have seen prices chopping back and forth and not taking a direction. USDA's gradual release of export sales data should eventually prove supportive to corn prices, but won't be current until Feb. 22 -- provided the federal government stays open. In the meantime, crop reports from South America are split with concerns about hot and dry weather in Brazil, while crops in Argentina appear to be doing well. On Thursday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its estimate of Argentina's corn crop to 45.0 mmt, higher than USDA's 42.5 mmt estimate. USDA will update its crop estimates on Friday, Feb. 8. Much of where corn prices trade this spring will depend on the success of Brazil's second crop with planting starting as soybeans are harvested. Friday's forecast shows increased chances for beneficial rain in the week ahead for Brazil's crop areas. For now, the trend in cash corn remains up, in line with its seasonal tendency. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.47 Thursday, down from its highest price in seven months and 30 cents below the March contract. The March U.S. dollar index is steady and outside commodities are mixed with March crude oil up $1.24 a barrel.

Soybeans:

March soybeans traded up 16 cents early Friday, but finished the day up just 2 1/2 cents at $9.17 3/4. Early trade was bolstered by Thursday's positive comments after what were described as two long and intensive days of trade talks with China. President Donald Trump said China's Vice Premier Liu He committed to buying another 5 million metric tons (184 mb) of U.S. soybeans and expressed cautious optimism that a broad trade agreement could be secured by the March 1 deadline. Traders also showed cautious bullish optimism Friday, bidding March prices higher, but still finishing down 7 1/2 cents on the week and staying in the same sideways trading range. As soybeans are harvested in Brazil, Dow Jones reported a new private crop estimate from private analytical firm INTL FCStone of 112.2 mmt (4.1 bb), which is the lowest so far and quite a drop from the Brazilian government agency CONAB's Jan. 10 estimate of 118.8 mmt (4.4 bb). USDA will weigh in with its own estimate on Feb. 8 and there is room to come in below CONAB's estimate, but 112.2 mmt seems too low. Also on Thursday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated Argentina's soybean crop at 53.0 mmt (1.95 bb), up from last year's drought-hit 37.8 mmt (1.39 bb). Fundamentally, the anticipation of heavy ending soybean supplies remains a bearish concern in 2019. Technically, the trend of cash soybean prices remains sideways while trade negotiations with China appear to be making constructive progress. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.25 Thursday, staying in a sideways range and $0.90 below the March futures contract.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat jumped 9 3/4 cents to $5.08 3/4 Friday, posting just a 3/4 cent loss for the week and possibly helped by an export sale. There was no official sale announcement for wheat Friday, but the higher close in the Mar/May K.C. wheat spread suggests bullish influence from the demand side of the market. Wheat prices were also likely nudged higher by Thursday's bullish trade talk comments and may also have some slight concern about the impact of this week's cold temperatures on the SRW wheat crop. Technically speaking, Friday's higher closes kept winter wheat futures safely in their sideways ranges and even nudged March Chicago wheat above its 100-day average for the second time since August. The new-crop wheat season is likely to start with a lot of bearish production assumptions this spring, but old-crop wheat should have two more months of bullish possibility before that happens. For cash HRW and SRW wheat prices, the trends remain up, while the trend is sideways for cash HRS wheat. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.76 Thursday, down from its four-month high and down 23 cents from the March futures contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.94 Thursday, down from its highest price in four months, but staying well-supported.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.