DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

March corn closed down 2 1/2 cents and December corn was down 2 cents. March soybeans closed down 4 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 4 1/4 cents. March Kansas City wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 5 1/2 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was down 5 3/4 cents.

The March U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.051 at 95.475. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 56 points at 24,585. February gold is up $7.10 at $1,310.20, March silver is up $0.10 at $15.86 and March copper is up $0.040 at $2.720. March crude oil is up $1.33 at $53.32, March heating oil is up $0.0623, March RBOB is up $0.0220 and March natural gas is up $0.033.

Corn:

March corn ended down 2 1/2 cents at $3.77 1/4 Tuesday, giving the month of January a 2 1/4-cent gain with two more days to go. For two consecutive months, $3.51 has held as resistance for the DTN National Corn Index, while traders have not had much new information to go on. Early Tuesday, USDA reported 5.4 million bushels (mb) (138,000 metric tons) of optional origin corn sales to South Korea for 2018-19. It was the first daily sale USDA has reported since Dec. 21, but it is still not known when USDA will be ready to report the past five weeks of missing data. Meanwhile, the forecast for south-central Brazil remains hot and mostly dry the next seven days. Rain does remain in the forecast for Argentina where flooding has been a problem in some areas. While traders wait to see if USDA has any surprises in its export data, the trend in cash corn remains up, in line with its seasonal tendency. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.49 Monday, near its highest level in seven months and priced 31 cents below the March contract. In outside markets, Dow Jones Industrials and most commodities are trading higher. Cattle modestly higher again, influenced by this week's colder temperatures.

Soybeans:

March soybeans fell back 4 1/4 cents to $9.19 Tuesday, staying in the same sideways range we have seen for several months, remaining well below the old high of $9.41 3/4 from late July. Trading volatility has been low this winter as we would normally expect for this time of year, but we shouldn't let that fool us into thinking there's no potential for movement in soybean prices as the outcome of the current trade talks with China have a lot to say about what soybean prices do in 2019. So far, an agreement with China does not seem likely, but trade officials will meet again Wednesday, and we will see what they report. This week's forecast for south-central Brazil remains hot and mostly dry, favorable for harvest progress. With bearish concerns about the possibility of high ending soybean stocks, the trend for cash soybeans remains sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.33 Monday, near the old July high of $8.41 and priced $0.90 below the March contract.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat fell 6 1/2 cents to $5.00 1/4, pressured by the latest forecast, which shows much of the U.S. Southern Plains protected from this week's coldest temperatures. The coldest blast is due to arrive early Wednesday, ushering in subzero readings as far south as central Illinois. By Saturday, much of the Midwest will see temperatures in the 30s or higher, 50s and 60s in the southwestern U.S. Plains. Technically speaking, March K.C. wheat has traded below its 100-day average for over five months, but has held sideways since prices reached a low of $4.82 1/4 in late November. There is not much happening fundamentally to take prices very far in either direction, but a close above the 100-day average at $5.20, if it did happen, could at least motivate some noncommercial buying. Until we get closer to the new-crop season, wheat prices are likely to remain rangebound. For now, the trends in cash hard red winter wheat (HRW) and soft red winter wheat (SRW) wheats are up, while the trend in cash SRW wheat is sideways. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.82 Monday, 24 cents under the March contract and near its highest prices in four months. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.94, near its highest prices in five months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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