DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

March corn closed up 1 cent and December 2019 corn was up 1 1/4 cents. March soybeans closed up 13 cents and November soybeans were up 10 1/2 cents. March K.C. wheat closed up 1 cent, March Chicago wheat was up 1 cent and March Minneapolis wheat was down 1 3/4 cents. The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.02 at 95.98. February gold is down $0.10 at $1,281.00 while March silver is up 7 cents and March copper is up 0.0120. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 61 points at 23,200. February crude oil is up $0.65 at $45.26. February heating oil is down $0.0094 while February RBOB gasoline is up $0.0055 and February natural gas is down $0.253.

For the week:

March corn closed down 3 cents and December 2019 corn was down 1 3/4 cents. March soybeans were down 2 1/4 cents while November 2019 soybeans were down 3/4 cent. March Kansas City wheat was down 6 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 16 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was down 22 3/4 cents.

Corn:

March corn closed up a penny at $3.75 1/2 Friday, narrowing this week's loss to 3 cents. We can't read too much into a week where family and holiday activities came first for many and USDA was hampered by a shutdown of the federal government. Without daily export announcements and USDA's weekly export sales report, it is possible that more sales were made, but only the parties involved know for sure at this point. At times like this, it is helpful to keep an eye on market clues and we still see cash corn prices in an uptrend, while March corn futures hold sideways in a six-month trading range. The Energy Department did come through with its weekly inventory report on Friday, showing ethanol inventory slipping from 23.9 million to 23.1 million barrels on slightly lower production. Dry conditions and hot temperatures remain a concern in southern Brazil, but there is a chance of rain in the forecast for next weekend. More heavy rains are expected in Argentina, but crop conditions are mostly favorable. On Thursday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported 73% of corn had been planted and only 8% was rated poor or very poor. Fundamentally speaking, cash corn prices are expected to stay near the same range we have seen the past four years. The current trend in cash corn remains up in spite of recent selling in outside markets. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.40 Thursday, down from its highest prices in six months and 34 cents below the March contract. Most commodities are higher Friday and the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.02.

Soybeans:

March soybeans closed up 13 cents at $8.95 1/2 Friday, erasing all but 2 1/4 cents of the week's loss. One of the unfortunate by-products of the federal government shutdown and lack of export news is that rumors and guessing try to fill the vacuum in an effort to explain Friday's higher trading. The truth is, however, that only the parties involved know if export sales were transacted, while the rest of us are in the dark, waiting for records to be made public. The U.S. White House and Congress are expected to talk again next week, but there are also no guarantees funding will be back in time for the WASDE, Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports on Jan. 11. Meanwhile, soybeans are being harvested in Mato Grosso, while hot and dry weather remains a concern for crops in southern Brazil. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported 83% of soybeans were planted and 16% were rated poor or very poor. Fundamentally, the expectation of heavy ending soybean supplies in the U.S. is keeping bearish pressure on prices, while trade talks with China inject a high degree of uncertainty into all outlooks. Technically, the trend of soybean prices remains sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.87 Thursday, down from its highest price in four months and $0.82 below the January futures contract.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat ended up a penny at $4.96 on low volume Friday and was down 6 3/4 cents on the week. Traders in wheat have not had much news to go on lately, given the holiday and lack of government services. The U.S. dollar index is a little lower this week and the March contract is down 0.02 on Friday, but not enough to impact wheat prices. This is an especially quiet time of year for the Northern Hemisphere, but Thursday, Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 82% of wheat was harvested and the crop is still expected to reach 19 mmt. March milling wheat in Europe was also quiet this week, down one euro per metric ton and staying elevated in a sideways range after this summer's rally. Here in the U.S., the Texas Panhandle is getting a little snow, but the seven-day forecast is mostly dry for the southwestern U.S. Plains. For cash HRW and HRS, the trends are sideways, while the trend for cash SRW wheat remains up. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.67 Thursday, below its three-month high and down 28 cents from the March futures contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.83 Thursday, also down from its highest price in three months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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