DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...80 AT MARATHON FL AND MIAMI (WEST KENDALL TAMIAMI AIRPORT) FL AND OPA-LOCKA FL AND POMPANO BEACH FL LOW SUN...11 BELOW ZERO AT GUNNISON CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…WILMINGTON DE 1.78 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair agreement during the outlook period.

I favor today's US model.

We see weak troughs with little available moisture during the first 3-4 days of the outlook period and mostly above normal temperatures. Late in the period there are indications of a southern branch trough developing with rain chances in the southern plains region. The European model is deeper and slower with this trough. This model suggests more widespread rainfall for the area at day ten or eleven. The US model with the weaker and faster moving system has most of the showers in southeast areas of the plains. This is preferred due to recent weather trends but there is some uncertainty in this outlook. The warmer temperatures pattern continues through the end of the period.

The mean maps at 8-10 days show little signs of the high latitude blocking ridge that was over the Greenland area on these maps late last week. We note the stronger western US trough on today's European model mean map and the weaker trough approaching the southern plains on the UE model. The models both show above normal heights over and near the Midwest region. This would likely feature above normal temperatures east of the Rockies.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Wet weather continues to delay any remaining harvest in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Quality issues and harvest losses are expected.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Favorable conditions for winter wheat with above to much above normal temperatures allowing for additional pre winter growth of the crop under adequate soil moisture.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Hot/dry weather in southern Brazil depletes soil moisture increasing stress on developing soybeans, especially pod filling soybeans in Parana. Beneficial showers and thunderstorms are expected this week in Rio Grande do Sul however they may not occur in Parana until late this week.

This situation bears watching. Favorable weather for developing soybeans in central Brazil with mostly light showers limiting any disease pressure.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms along with moderate temperatures this week will favor developing corn and soybeans.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Maize and sugarcane likely benefited from rainfall and cooler temperatures early last week. The region turned hot again at the end of last week. A few scattered thunderstorms occurred during the weekend. The region should see scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms during this week, possibly enough to off set the impact from what looks to be mostly above normal temperatures.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mainly dry during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

East: Moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms through southern and east-central areas during the weekend period. Little elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today and Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers during Wednesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Thursday through Saturday.

Temperatures average above normal during this period.

East: Mostly dry today through the daytime hours of Wednesday. A few showers may occur during Wednesday night. Temperatures average well above normal.

Chance for rain or showers through southeast and east areas Thursday into Friday. Little elsewhere in the region during this time. Mainly dry Saturday.

Temperatures average above normal.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Showers lingered in southeast areas Friday. Mostly dry otherwise during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Tuesday. Chance for a few light showers through eastern areas Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal Thursday and Friday, cooler Saturday but still above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal during this period. Precipitation near to below normal north, near to above normal south.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier during the weekend period. Temperatures variable Saturday, above normal Sunday. Highs Sunday 91 to 95F.

Forecast...

Episodes of scattered thunderstorms in RGDS today through Wednesday. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures above normal. Highs in the 90s, except cooler during times of thundershowers in RGDS.

Moderate to heavy thunderstorms in RGDS Thursday into Friday. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers reach to Parana Friday or Saturday.

Temperatures turn cooler during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Scattered showers and thundershowers in Mato Grosso during the weekend period. Isolated activity otherwise. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast...

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier during this period. Temperatures average near to above normal during this time.

Scattered showers and thundershowers are expected to redevelop in the area towards the end of the week or during the weekend. Temperatures return to seasonal levels once these showers develop.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Mostly dry Friday through the daytime hours of Sunday. A few thunderstorms have developed overnight, especially in southeast areas. Temperatures below normal Saturday, above normal again Sunday.

Forecast...

Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring north and east areas today.

Drier Tuesday. Scattered to widely scattered showers during Wednesday.

Temperatures vary somewhat during this period.

Scattered showers and thundershowers during Thursday. Drier Friday. Dry Saturday. Cooler early in this period, hot again late in the period.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers favoring north and east areas Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures variable Saturday, above normal Sunday. Temperatures 89 to 96F Sunday.

Forecast...

Dry or with only a few light showers today. Dry Tuesday. Scattered to widely scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period.

Scattered to widely scattered showers Thursday. Drier Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures turn cooler Thursday into Friday, warm to hot again during Saturday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(BAS)

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