DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...90 AT FORT MYERS FL

LOW WED...10 BELOW ZERO AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…NASHVILLE TN 0.66 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in somewhat better agreement today, good agreement early in the period and fair agreement late in the period. The idea of a significant Midwest storm that showed up on yesterday's operational run of the European model has been taken out of that forecast series. There is now no significant precipitation being forecasted for the Midwest on either model. The US model shows a southern branch trough bringing rain to the southeast plains and the southwest Delta area during the period. The European model shows a significant rain chance in the Kansas/Oklahoma area at day ten but nothing much prior to that period. I favor the US model as it concerns these areas. The US model has a new surface high maintaining somewhat colder weather for the north and east Midwest during the period. The European model is much less interested in this high. In either case is does not appear to be a major cold snap, like the one we are currently in. However, as the strong blocking ridge continues over the Greenland, the North Atlantic and northwest Europe during this period we need to keep an eye on these cold surface highs moving through the Great lakes region and into the northeast US during the period. As they could come in colder than expected.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Mostly dry weather and a somewhat more variable temperature pattern will favor the remaining harvest in the western Midwest.

Snow, ice and rain overnight last night and today will maintain a slower pace for late fall field work in the eastern Midwest. There is some chance that conditions in the eastern Midwest will improve with time.

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN,SOYBEANS): More favorable harvest weather in the northern Plains.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT): Colder weather slows winter wheat development.

Soil moisture supplies are quite favorable.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT): Mostly favorable weather for maturing and harvesting wheat.

More rain would benefit summer crops in the northeast.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Favorable weather for developing soybeans in central Brazil.

Episodes of scattered thunderstorms and mostly warm temperatures will favor early planted soybeans and corn in southern Brazil while causing some delays to fieldwork, at times.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): Recent heavy rains in central Argentina will disrupt and delay corn and soybean planting and may force some replanting. A somewhat more favorable weather pattern for seasonal fieldwork in Cordoba, Santa Fe and northwest Buenos Aires during the next 5 to 7 days.

Additional rains in La Pampa, south and central Buenos Aires will lead to delays to the planting of summer crops and the harvesting of winter wheat during this period.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): The hot, dry period continues another 3 to possibly 4 days. Highs in the 90s to low 100s F in maize areas during this time frame. A cold front passage is expected to bring scattered thunderstorms to the region Monday into Tuesday along with a break in the heat wave. Rainfall is needed to support early planted crops in the east and to condition soils for planting in the west.

EUROPE: Winter crop prospects have greatly improved over much of northern Europe following beneficial rain over the past two weeks.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Dry, warm weather encouraged a rapid pace of summer crop harvesting and accelerated winter wheat development

CHINA (WHEAT/RAPESEED): Dry weather across most of eastern China facilitated the completion of wheat and rapeseed planting. More rainfall would be welcome to boost moisture reserves prior to the crops going dormant, especially north and west growing areas.

INDIA (WHEAT/RAPESEED): Seasonably dry weather across most of India continued to promote winter (rabi) crop planting, although wheat sowing was delayed in the north due to the slow pace of cotton and rice harvesting. Showers were generally limited to the south and southeast (Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala), boosting moisture supplies for rabi rice and groundnut establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday morning, below normal east and above normal west during the afternoon.

East: Mostly dry during the daytime hours yesterday. Snow, freezing rain and rain has occurred overnight through south, central and into the northeast areas. Precipitation through the early am period should average 0.50-1.00 inch through southeast areas, 0.10-0.50 inch, elsewhere in the areas mentioned.

Significant snow mainly south and east-central Illinois and west Indiana. A significant ice storm in east-central and northeast areas of the Midwest.

Temperatures averaged well below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today and most of Friday. Chance for light precipitation, up to 0.25 inch, through northern and east-central areas Friday night. A little light precipitation favoring southern areas during Saturday. Temperatures average near to mostly above normal today and Friday, below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday and Tuesday.

East: Snow, ice and rain changing to snow favoring central and east areas today. Additional precipitation totals of 0.10-0.50 inch east and mostly less than 0.10 inch west. Mainly dry Friday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today, near to mostly below normal tomorrow and Saturday.

Dry or with only a little light precipitation favoring south and east areas Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west and below to near normal east during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal northwest and north-central areas, below normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Friday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation Saturday. Temperatures average above normal today and Friday, below normal north and central areas and near to above normal south Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday, near to above normal north and below normal south Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period, however mostly in a near to above normal range. Precipitation below normal north and southwest, near to above normal southeast areas.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers in Parana during the past 24 hours. A few light showers with locally heavier in RGDS.

Temperatures averaged below normal through RGDS and southwestern Parana, above normal elsewhere in Parana.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today and Friday. Showers and thundershowers redevelop in RGDS during Saturday or Saturday night. Temperatures near to below normal today, warmer again tomorrow and Saturday.

Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers favoring Parana during Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, warmer again Monday and Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers were reported in the region during the past 24 hours. Temperatures near to slightly above normal. Highs yesterday 86 to 93F.

Forecast...

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers during the next 5 days.

Temperatures return to more seasonal levels.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal.

Forecast...

Dry or with only a little light rain or drizzle developing tonight and early tomorrow. Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms during Saturday. The activity may favor northern Buenos Aires and Entre Rios. Temperatures average near to above normal today, cooler south and continued warmer north Friday, cooler weather moves northward during Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday, warmer Monday and Tuesday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today and early Friday. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers develop in the west and spread east Friday night and Saturday.

Temperatures vary somewhat today and Friday, cooling from west to east during Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures average below normal Sunday but it should turn warmer during Monday and Tuesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(BAS)

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