DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 4 3/4 cents in the December contract and down 4 cents in the July. Soybeans were down 5 cents in the January contract and down 5 1/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 7 cents in the December Kansas City contract, down 12 cents in December Chicago, and down 4 1/4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.17 at 97.21. December gold is down $1.50 at $1,202.00 while December silver is down 4 cents and December copper is up $0.0020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 123 points at 25,264. December crude oil is down $4.24 at $55.69. December heating oil is down $0.0919 while December RBOB gasoline is down $0.0965 and December natural gas is up 0.278.

Corn:

December corn closed down 4 3/4 cents at $3.66 1/2 with sub-freezing temperatures across the central U.S., but also dry-enough conditions to help harvest move along. USDA is expected to show corn harvest progress in the mid-80s later Tuesday afternoon with more help from a dry seven-day forecast for most of the Corn Belt. Earlier Tuesday, USDA said 44.7 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections up 86% in 2018-19 from a year ago. Of course, that hot pace is not expected to hold up all season, but it still makes a strong case that corn exports have a good chance to finish higher than the 2.438 billion bushels seen in 2017-18. Corn exports in the final two months of 2018-19 will depend on Brazil's next crop and so far, conditions have been favorable. In spite of Tuesday's lower close, the trend in corn remains up as we head toward a quieter time of year. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.37 Monday, well above its September low of $3.00 and priced 34 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, December crude oil is down $4.24, caught in a selling spiral after OPEC, Russia, and the U.S. increased production in recent months.

Soybeans:

January soybeans tried to trade higher early, but ended down 5 cents at $8.78 1/4. It has been a long, tough fall for many trying to finish soybean harvest and USDA will likely show more unpicked areas in Tuesday's report. Subfreezing temperatures invaded the central U.S. early Tuesday and may actually help harvest as conditions are expected to stay dry for most of the Midwest in the week ahead. Earlier Tuesday, USDA said 47.8 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, bringing the total to 364.1 million bushels. That is still down 42% from a year ago and a long way from the 1.900 billion bushels of exports that USDA anticipates. USDA did report 10.2 million bushels (276,732 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2018-19. Lack of trade with China remains the big issue for soybean prices and the Wall Street Journal reported late Monday that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is speaking with Chinese officials again, in hopes of working toward a framework when President Donald Trump meets with President Xi Jinping on November 30 in Buenos Aires. With plenty of unanswered questions about trade, soybean prices continue to trade in a sideways range, well above their September low. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.89 Monday, priced $0.95 below the January contract and still well above the September low of $7.12. There were 247 delivery intentions of November soybeans issued late Monday. There were 1,488 contracts still open as of early Tuesday with expiration set for early Wednesday, Nov. 14.

Wheat:

December K.C. wheat closed down 7 cents at $4.86 1/2 and December Chicago wheat fell 12 cents, giving back much of Monday's 17 3/4 cent gain. Just as it was odd on Monday that Chicago wheat prices were up so strong in the face of a higher U.S. dollar, Tuesday's lower prices in wheat and several other commodities were influenced by a steep $4.00 drop in crude oil prices -- an unusual event for markets. One thing we can say about winter wheat is prices are not showing any concern about this year's interrupted planting, especially in Kansas where single-digit temperatures arrived Tuesday morning. The more obvious factor weighing on prices has been the lack of export activity and Tuesday's inspections report offered no help. USDA said 12.6 million bushels of wheat were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections down 21% from a year ago. For now, all three wheats remain under pressure, but prices are holding sideways as we head into what is typically a quieter time of year. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.63 Monday, 31 cents below the December contract and holding above support at $4.50. Similarly, DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.88 Monday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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