DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 4 1/2 cents in the December contract and was up 4 1/4 cents in the July. Soybeans closed up 5 3/4 cents in the January and up 5 1/2 cents in the July. Wheat closed up 3 cents in the December Kansas City, up 3/4 cent in the December Chicago, and was up 3 3/4 cents in the December Minneapolis. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.25 at 96.33. December gold is down $3.70 at $1,234.90 while December silver is down 2 cents and December copper is up 0.0770. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 289 points at 25,092. December crude oil is down $0.54 at $63.15. December heating oil is down $0.0250 while December RBOB gasoline is down $0.0075 and December natural gas is up $0.053.

For the week:

December corn closed up 3 1/2 cents and July was up 3 1/4 cents. January soybeans were up 30 cents while the July was up 29 cents. December Kansas City wheat was up 4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 3 1/2 cents, and December Minneapolis wheat was up 2 3/4 cents.

Corn:

December corn ended up 4 1/2 cents at $3.71 1/4, nudging higher without the benefit of a presidential tweet on Friday, but finding steady support from this fall's harvest challenges and active exports. Speaking of demand, USDA said early Friday 7.9 million bushels (200,900 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to Mexico for 2018-19. Friday's weather map was mostly dry for the central U.S. with light showers in Missouri. Iowa and Wisconsin are expecting light to moderate amounts over the weekend with light moisture favoring the eastern Midwest. Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report will likely show limited progress again for the 2018 corn harvest. On Friday, USDA released its long-term projections and it was interesting to see they estimated 92.0 million acres of spring plantings, up from 89.1 million this year. Eventually, focus on the corn harvest will subside and that may be happening already as December prices are now back above their 100-day average. For now, the trend in corn remains up, in line with its seasonal pattern. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.28 Thursday, staying above the September low and 39 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is up 0.23 after the U.S. Labor Department said non-farm payrolls were up 250,000 in October, more than expected. The U.S. unemployment rate stayed at 3.7% in October, as expected.

Soybeans:

January soybeans ended up 5 3/4 cents at $8.87 3/4 Friday, settling back after briefly touching $9.00 in early post-tweet excitement. Thursday's tweet from President Trump gave soybeans a much-needed lift this week, but it remains to be seen whether the reference had any actual substance to it. The G-20 meeting doesn't start until November 30, so there's plenty of time for prices to be paralyzed. With Brazil's FOB soybean price sitting $2.20 a bushel above the price in New Orleans, there is no strong market clue suggesting a trade deal is in the air, but surprises can happen. Aside from the possibility of a trade deal, the actual export evidence remains bearish, now down 39% from a year ago. Soybean harvest continues to be a sore subject after more rain swept through the Southern Plains and southeastern Midwest this week, adding to serious concerns of crop quality. Meanwhile, all systems are go in Brazil where rains have been widespread. U.S. soybean demand and trade relations with China remain the big question marks in the year ahead with much riding on the outcome. It may be too early to have this conversation, but on Friday USDA estimated 82.5 million acres of soybean plantings for the spring of 2019, down from 89.1 million acres this year. For now, soybeans are trading within a sideways range. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.79 Thursday, still up from its lowest price in 11 years and priced $1.03 below the November contract. There were 602 delivery intentions for November soybeans early Friday.

Wheat:

December K.C. wheat closed up 3 cents at $5.04 1/4 Friday and was up 4 cents on the week, finding support near its lowest prices in nine months. Now in November, it remains to be seen how much of the expected winter wheat crop will get planted as Kansas still has soybeans in the field. In USDA's long-term projections, released Friday, USDA estimated 51.0 million acres of total wheat plantings, up from 47.8 million in 2018. No, the early estimate doesn't really mean anything, but don't we all feel better now? What does seem significant about this week is how cash wheat prices are holding steady, above support while futures bounced back from recent lows. For now, the trends in all three wheats are sideways as we head into what is typically a quieter time of year. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.66 Thursday, above its July low of $4.50 and down 35 cents from the December contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.75 Thursday, up from its July low of $4.51.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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