DTN Before The Bell Grains

Morning CME Globex Update:

Inside a narrow trading range, the soybean futures market was mostly stable overnight but is likely to succumb to the same bearish pressure being experienced by corn and wheat, as end-of-month trading volume accelerates Wednesday and the U.S. Dollar Index explores fresh highs.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

Whatever black cat or witch's spell may have spooked the stock market this October, investors seem prepared to pursue a recovery on October 31, but the corn futures market hasn't followed along with large trading volumes this week. The December corn chart remains stuck in a sideways range between $3.80 and $3.60. Selling pressure throughout the Wednesday session could easily push the contract a nickel lower and more clearly establish a short-term downward trend. Some Midwestern farmers will be tricked by harvest-delaying rain Wednesday (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan), while others (Iowa) should be treated to sunny skies which may allow them to catch up on their corn harvest progress. The DTN National Corn Index was $3.25 per bushel Tuesday, showing national average basis steady at 40 cents under the December futures contract.

Soybeans:

Supported by the stability in soybean meal prices, soybean futures attempted to trade two cents higher early Wednesday morning, which set them apart from the lower movement in grains, but they have slipped into the red since then. Trading volume has been notably light Wednesday morning, and is very likely to accelerate on the last day of the month. Otherwise, the January soybean futures chart has been posting an almost interrupted series of progressively lower daily lows through the last half of this month. Wednesday is First Notice day for the November soybean futures contract, and there were 13 delivery notices issued and stopped in the evening report. The DTN National Soybean Index was $7.37 per bushel Tuesday, showing national average basis stronger at $1.10 under the January futures contract.

Wheat:

Like a zombie rising from the grave, the 2019 winter wheat crop is emerging from the soil in the U.S. Southern Plains and on Wednesday will receive beneficial scattered precipitation. Private estimates of the 2018 Australian winter wheat crop continue to be decreased, but this hasn't been a global market-mover when the stocks-to-use ratios in other exporting countries remains so large. As the U.S. dollar keeps churning higher, U.S. dollar-denominated wheat futures contracts will be especially vulnerable to lower price tags, and Chicago wheat futures are leading the losses in the grain complex Wednesday morning. DTN's collected SRW Index on Tuesday was $4.66 per bushel (33 cents under the December Chicago futures contract); the HRW Index was $4.61 (34 cents under the December KC futures contract); and the Spring Wheat Index was $5.21 per bushel (a stronger average basis bid at 51 cents under the December Minneapolis futures contract).

Elaine Kub can be reached at elaine@masteringthegrainmarkets.com

FollowElaine on Twitter @elainekub

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