DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 2 cents in the December contract and down 2 cents in the July. Soybeans were down 5 1/4 cents in the January contract and down 4 3/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 6 3/4 cents in the December Kansas City contract, down 7 1/2 cents in December Chicago and down 6 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is up 0.45 at 96.80. December gold is down $3.00 at $1,224.60 while December silver is up 2 cents and December copper is down $0.0770. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 139 points at 24,582. December crude oil is down $1.20 at $65.84. December heating oil is down $0.0346 while December RBOB gasoline is down $0.0271 and December natural gas is down $0.011.

Corn:

December corn closed down 2 cents at $3.64 3/4 Tuesday, after USDA said 63% of the corn had been harvested, even with its five-year average pace. Individual states varied, however, but progress is lagging in Iowa, Nebraska and the Dakotas. The good news for growers in those states is that they are expecting mostly dry weather the next seven days. The southeastern Midwest however, has the opposite problem with more heavy rain expected Wednesday and chances for flooding along the Ohio River Valley. Export demand for corn remains a bullish factor for prices in early 2018, but corn sales have cooled the past few weeks. Future demand for ethanol production remains a concern with ethanol inventory near record levels. For now, the trend in corn remains up as we head toward a quieter time of year. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.26 Monday, well above its September low of $3.00 and priced 40 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the U.S. dollar index is up 0.45 at a new contract high, prompted by the highest reading of U.S. consumer confidence in 18 years. Outside commodities are mostly lower.

Soybeans:

January soybeans closed down 5 1/4 cents at $8.47 Tuesday, finding it difficult to break the bearish mood while interest in U.S. soybean exports has been sluggish without China. On the other hand, the issue of how much damage has come to the U.S. soybean crop this fall has still not been assessed and Monday's Crop Progress report showed vulnerable areas. USDA said 72% of soybeans were harvested, down from the five-year average of 81% for this time of year. Most of the states that are behind their usual pace are in the Western Corn Belt and will benefit from another seven days of mostly dry weather. However, Arkansas and the southeastern Midwest are expecting more heavy rain on Wednesday. While traders are still anticipating a large crop and minimal participation from China in the export markets, potential buyers remain difficult to find. The trend in soybeans is struggling to stay sideways, but prices are still holding above their September low. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.41 Monday, priced $1.11 below the January contract and still well above the September low of $7.12.

Wheat:

December Kansas City wheat is down 6 3/4 cents at $4.94 3/4, falling back after USDA said late Monday that 78% of the winter wheat crop has been planted, down from a five-year average of 85%. In Kansas, the pace remains slower than usual. 89% of Kansas wheat is usually in the ground by now, but only 76% has been planted and in many cases is waiting for soybean fields that are only 42% harvested. It is odd that USDA gives a crop rating when only 63% of the wheat crop has emerged, but they contend 53% is rated either good or excellent. Outside the U.S., Canada should be making progress with spring wheat and Europe has beneficial rain in this week's forecast but still needs more. Ukraine and southern Russia remain on the dry side as we near November. Having reached new lows last week, the trends in both Chicago and K.C. wheat are currently down while the trend in Minneapolis wheat remains sideways. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.66 Monday but likely fell to new lows on Thursday, trading 35 cents below the December contract. Similarly, DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.72 Monday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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