DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 3 cents in the December contract and down 3 cents in the July. Soybeans were down 6 3/4 cents in the November contract and down 6 3/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 3 3/4 cents in the December Kansas City contract, down 1 1/2 cents in December Chicago, and down 4 1/4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is up 0.02 at 94.77. December gold is down $0.50 at $1,229.80 while December silver is down 4 cents and December copper is down $0.0050. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 478 points at 25,729. November crude oil is up $0.26 at $72.04. November heating oil is up $0.0183, while November RBOB gasoline is up $0.0336 and November natural gas is down $0.004.

Corn:

December corn fell back 3 cents to $3.75 1/4 Tuesday with combines taking advantage of Tuesday's drier weather and returning to fields where possible. The 10-day forecast remains mostly dry for the Corn Belt and will provide much-needed help for harvest after USDA said late Monday that 39% of corn was gathered, making only5 percentage points of progress last week. The Palmer Drought map shows the highest areas of extreme moisture from central Nebraska to southern Wisconsin, but USDA's crop ratings for corn showed large, 4-percentage point increases in the poor-to-very-poor ratings for North Dakota and Missouri. The point is this fall's harvest challenges are widespread, but if the forecast is accurate, help is on the way. The bullish bonus that corn prices have at this time is their strong start to exports in 2018-19. In spite of Tuesday's lower close, the trend remains up in December corn, in line with its seasonal tendency. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.35 Monday, up from its September low and priced 43 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the Dow Jones Industrials are up 478 points, rebounding from last week's selling panic. Most commodities outside of ag are mixed and fairly quiet Tuesday.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 6 3/4 cents Tuesday, giving back part of Monday's 24-cent gain, which likely included some panicked short-covering as Monday's closing price reached its highest in seven weeks. USDA pegged the soybean harvest at 38% complete as of Sunday, stalled out by last week's wet and snowy weather. The dry 10-day forecast, mentioned above, will eventually help the soybean harvest pick up again, but in many areas, soybeans have been damaged and it will take time to get an accurate assessment of where the 2018 crop now stands. Of course, U.S. soybean demand remains a big concern contributing to lower prices, but as Elaine Kub mentioned in Before the Bell comments, it was somewhat encouraging to see roughly 5 million bushels of soybeans on their way to China in Monday's inspections report -- the larger half of those inspected at Puget Sound. With FOB soybean prices $2.37 cheaper at New Orleans than at Paranagua, Brazil, the U.S. should remain the world's primary supplier of soybeans until at least February. From there, it will depend on Brazil's next crop, which so far, is off to a good start and is showing a record planting pace. For now, the trend remains up in November soybeans, in line with its seasonal tendency. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.89 Monday, up from its lowest price in11 years and priced $1.02 below the November contract, the weakest basis in at least 11 years.

Wheat:

December K.C. wheat was down 3 3/4 cents at $5.28 Tuesday, a quiet day of trading that kept prices in their sideways range. More rain fell across the south-central U.S. Tuesday, catching much of central Texas and Arkansas in the process. Late Monday, USDA said 65% of winter wheat was planted, near its usual pace in spite of recent heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. Plains. More rain this week is expected to stay near Texas, which will give other winter wheat states a chance to keep planting. December Minneapolis wheat ended down 4 1/4 cents Tuesday as the western Canadian prairies are expecting warmer and drier conditions this week, better for the harvest of spring wheat. USDA still has a hope for higher U.S. wheat exports in 2018-19, but after 19 weeks in the new season, U.S. exports are down 28% from a year ago. For now, December contracts for all three wheats are holding in a narrow, sideways range, supported above their July lows. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.94 Monday, up from its lowest price in two months and 38 cents below the December contract. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.85, also up from its lowest price in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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