DTN Midday Grain Comments

Grains Mostly Lower in Midday Trade

David M Fiala
By  David Fiala , DTN Contributing Analyst
(DTN photo by Nick Scalise)

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 250. The interest rate products are mostly higher. The U.S. dollar index is 15 lower. Energies are mostly lower with crude down $1.85. Livestock trade is mostly weaker. Precious metals are firmer with gold $27.


Corn trade is 1 cent to 2 cents lower in quiet pre-report trade with sideways action persisting. Cold weather is expected to persist with the heaviest rain potential passed in most areas. The weekly ethanol report showed production up by 25,000 barrels per day, and stocks were 576,000 barrels, pushing futures back below $1.30. The USDA also announced cancellations of 140,000 metric tons sold to unknown. Corn basis is expected to stay sideways with wet weather limiting weakness in some areas. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ("WASDE") report expectations are for corn 2018-19 carryout to come in at 1.932 billion bushels (bb), up from 1.774 bb in September with yield at 181.8 bushels per acre (bpa) for production at 14.851 bb, up .5 bpa last month with world stocks at 159.2 million metric tons (mmt) for 2018-19 versus 157 mmt last month. The higher September quarterly grain stocks numbers for corn and beans is expected to give us higher carry-in stocks. On the December chart support is at the $3.60 20-day with resistance at our recent high of $3.69 1/2.


Soybean trade is 2 cents to 4 cents lower at midday with trade chopping along the lower end of the range found Wednesday. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil was 15 to 25 points lower. Soybean basis has found some footing with the delays, although it remains abnormally wide with more focus on quality losses with aggressive discounts along the river system. Crush margins remain strong even with meal and oil swapping leadership at times this week. Early planting in South America is underway with the recent weather pattern remaining intact. The Brazilian real is firmer Thursday morning. WASDE expectations are for 860 million bushel (mb) 2018-19 domestic carryout on a yield of 53.4 bpa, up .6 bpa from last month for production of 4.733 bb, with world stocks up 1.4 mmt from last month to 109.4 mmt. On the November chart support is the 20-day at $8.49, which is right at the overnight price, with resistance the 50-day at $8.59.


Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday with early gains fading yet again. The U.S. dollar has faded back below 95 on the index amid the broad selling Thursday. World spring wheat harvest is nearing completion, while winter wheat planting is ongoing with better conditions in North America than Europe. Australia remains in the recent weather pattern. WASDE expectations are for carryout of 1.027 bb domestically, up from 927 mb in September, and world numbers at 261.1 mmt, unchanged from last month. On the December Kansas City chart, we are just below the 10-day and 20-day at $5.18 with the lower Bollinger Band support at $5.09

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


David Fiala