DTN Closing Grain Comments

Wheat Leads the Row Crops Higher

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
Connect with Cliff:
(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)

General Comments:

Corn was up 1 3/4 cents in the December contract and up 2 1/4 cents in the July. Soybeans were up 8 1/4 cents in the November contract and up 9 cents in the July. Wheat closed up 9 3/4 cents in the December Chicago contract, up 11 cents in the December Kansas City and up 14 1/4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is .211 higher at 95.140. December gold is $15.40/ounce higher at $1,207.10/ounce, while December silver is .218 cents higher and December copper is .015 higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 140.57 points at 26,791.78. October crude oil is down $.14/barrel at $75/barrel and December natural gas is .068 higher.

Corn:

Despite bullish weather factors that are poised to lead to further delays in the U.S. Midwest, corn prices moved reluctantly higher in Tuesday's trade, with the December contract adding 1 3/4 cents to finish at $3.67 1/2/bu, near the upper-end of this session's high. The December reached a two-week high this session, while stalling at the high reached on the week of September 10, with continued noncommercial buying interest behind the move. An estimated 186,687 contracts traded in the December contract, down for the second day, although still higher than the four-session moving average. DTN's Market Weather Factors were viewed as bullish for row crops, with heavy rains and harvest delays expected for the northern and western Midwest over the next seven days, in addition to the 2 to 5 inches received over the past 14 days. The USDA left their crop condition ratings unchanged for corn this week for the unharvested crop at 69% Good to Excellent as of September 30, although this bears watching in the weeks to come.

DTN's National Average Corn Basis was unchanged over the past week at 44 cents under the December on Monday, leaving the National Corn Index at $3.22/bu.

Soybeans:

Soybeans pushed higher this session, with the nearby November contract up 8 1/4 cents at $8.66/bu, reaching a five-week high with speculative noncommercial buying interest behind the move. Like corn, DTN's Market Weather Factors are viewed as bullish for soybeans, which led to a close above the November contract's 50-day moving average for the first time since August 20. As with corn, the USDA left the crop condition rating on the balance of the soybean crop unchanged this week at 68% Good to Excellent as of September 30. Noncommercial buying interest helped boost soymeal to a modestly higher close, with the December ending up $1.30/ton to $315.10/ton. December soybean oil finished higher given a combination of commercial and noncommercial interest, with the December contract ending .35 cents higher at 29.66 cents/lb.

DTN's National Average Soybean Basis weakened 4 cents to $1.06/bu under the November contract on Monday, leaving the National Soybean Index at $7.52/bu.

Wheat:

Wheat futures were the leaders in Tuesday's trade, with spring wheat leading the pack over most of the session. December MGEX spring wheat ended 14 1/4 cents higher, December K.C. wheat ended 11 cents higher and December Chicago wheat ended 9 3/4 cents higher, although winter wheat futures ended the session well back from session highs. A late-session spike in prices was tied to rumors that Russia will act to suspend grain shipping from locations in two exporting regions. These rumors have surfaced in the past and are often denied by the Russian government soon after to calm markets. At the same time, spring wheat led most of the session, potentially tied to harvest delays on the Canadian prairies and a favorable view of the USMCA trade agreement, which improves Northern Plains access of wheat into facilities across the Canadian border, something industry groups have been fighting for some time.

DTN's National Average HRW Basis strengthened 2 cents on Monday to 37 cents under the December, with the DTN National Hard Red Winter Index ending at $4.74/bu. The National Average Soft Red Winter Index strengthened 3 cents on Monday to 41 cents under the December, leaving the National Soft Red Winter Index at $4.69/bu. The National Average Spring Wheat Basis strengthened 5 cents on Monday to 56 cents under the December contract, with the DTN National Hard Red Spring Index ending at $5.21/bu.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

(CZ)

Cliff Jamieson