DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 3 1/4 cents in the December contract and up 2 1/2 cents in the July. Soybeans were down 6 1/4 cents in the November contract and down 5 cents in the July. Wheat closed up 5 1/4 cents in the December Chicago contract, up 3 3/4 cents in the December Kansas City, and up 1 1/2 cents in the December Minneapolis contract. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.02 at 93.78. December gold is up $2.70 at $1,204.00 while December silver is down 4 cents and December copper is down $0.0255. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 166 points at 26,578. November crude oil is up $1.31 at $72.09. November heating oil is up $0.0579 while November RBOB gasoline is up $0.0401 and November natural gas is up 0.055.

Corn:

December corn prices ended up 3 1/4 cents at $3.60 1/2 Monday, a fourth consecutive day higher after storms and flooding concerns hit the north-central Midwest last week and over the weekend. Corn prices were helped by strong demand for corn exports early in 2018-19. USDA said 49.7 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, putting the new total for 2018-19 up 39% from a year ago. This year's strong start is related to lower corn crops earlier this year from Brazil and Argentina and is likely to stay firm, at least until South America's next crops ship in mid-2019. Monday's weather map shows heavy rain near the Mississippi Delta and Ohio River Valley with more amounts expected Tuesday as well. The rest of the Midwest will offer better harvest weather this week with some northern fields still limited by last week's storms. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials slightly net short and commercials slightly net long -- another reason last week's low in corn may stand the rest of the year. Cash corn prices remain under harvest pressure with support from undetermined crop damage and increased export demand. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.13 Friday, up from far from its 2017 low and priced 44 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.02 with the Federal Reserve expected to increase the federal funds rate Wednesday afternoon.

Soybeans:

November soybeans ended down 6 1/4 cents at $8.41 in light volume Monday. Like corn, soybeans found unexpected support last week from storms and flooding concerns in the north-central Midwest, but unlike corn, soybeans do not have the same good export demand to help prices. USDA did say early Monday 5.95 mb (162,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2018-19. However, last week's export inspections totaled just 25.5 million bushels, putting the new total down 25% in 2018-19 from a year ago. Earlier Monday, the U.S. enacted $200 billion of new tariffs against Chinese goods and China retaliated with $60 billion of their own tariffs against U.S. goods, as was expected. China announced over the weekend they would not be joining this week's planned trade talks and near-term solutions still look unlikely. While political risk remains high, last week's rebound from a new contract low is a good candidate for this year's seasonal low, supported by CFTC's report of 99,087 net longs among commercials on September 18. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.44 Friday, up from its lowest price in 11 years and priced $1.03 below the November contract, the weakest basis in at least 11 years.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat closed up 5 1/4 cents at $5.27, continuing to find support in this year of lower world wheat production, even though the U.S. has yet to benefit from increased export business. USDA said 15.0 million bushels of wheat were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections down 29% in 2018-19 from a year ago and far below USDA's goal for a 14% increase. Rains on Friday and Saturday left flooding behind in Oklahoma and northern Texas, but the forecast is drier for the week ahead, more favorable for winter wheat planting progress. In Australia, another dry forecast for this week continues to point to a smaller wheat crop ahead. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials net long 36,629 contracts of Chicago wheat as of September 18, cutting back their bullish positions for a sixth consecutive week. December contracts for all three wheats are holding in a sideways range. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.76 Friday, 46 cents below the December contract and up from its lowest price in two months. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.84 Friday, also up from its lowest price in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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