DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1 cent in the December contract and up 1 1/4 cents in the July. Soybeans were up 1 1/4 cents in the November contract and up 2 1/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 8 cents in the December Chicago contract, down 11 1/4 cents in the December Kansas City, and down 8 1/2 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.14 at 94.98. December gold is up $4.30 at $1,205.60 while December silver is down 1 cent and December copper is up $0.0280. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 42 points at 26,017. October crude oil is down $0.82 at $67.90. October heating oil is down $0.0220 while October RBOB gasoline is down $0.0100 and October natural gas is down 0.025.

Corn:

December corn ended up a penny at $3.66 1/4 on light volume Thursday with more scattered showers over crops in the southern and Eastern Corn Belt. With flooding issues already present across the central and southern Corn Belt, the seven-day forecast is especially concerning with heavy rain amounts forecast from Missouri and Arkansas through the eastern Midwest. Rain will also interrupt harvest activity in the southeastern U.S. The six-to 10-day forecast is helping traders ignore the current rain threat, showing a drier expectation and above average temperatures for most of the Corn Belt. With new-crop sales of corn exports off to a good start for 2018-19, the demand side of the market is helping to offset the anticipation of another big harvest this fall. December corn continues to hold a sideways range between roughly $3.50 and $3.90. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.22 Wednesday, holding above its low in 2018 and priced 43 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is quiet, trading down 0.14 ahead of Friday morning's report on U.S. unemployment. Outside commodities were mostly lower.

Soybeans:

November soybeans were up 1 1/4 cents at $8.39 1/4 Thursday, another day of light volume trading while the market waits to see if the U.S. will raise the trade war ante and enact $200 billion tariffs on Chinese goods. While the politics of the trade war remains bearish for soybean prices, albeit with a high degree of uncertainty, market factors for U.S. soybeans remain clearly bearish with a record harvest still anticipated this fall. There is a chance that some crop loss could result from the recent waves of heavy rain across the central and southern Midwest, but large losses do not seem likely yet, and the forecast looks drier for the Midwest after the next four days. Friday morning's export data for soybeans needs roughly 25 million bushels (mb) to reach USDA's estimate of 2.110 billion bushels (bb) for 2017-18 and is likely to make it. Meanwhile, new-crop export sales are up 15% from this time a year ago, but the situation with China remains a big question mark. Amid the uncertainty, November soybeans remain under pressure, but are still managing to hold above support at $8.25. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.40 Wednesday, near its lowest price in 10 years and priced 98 cents below the November contract, the weakest basis in 11 years.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat dropped a third consecutive day, down 8 cents and sliding below last month's low to $5.13 3/4. Light volume was seen again, another sign that the buy side of the market has lost interest since Russia's government said export limits would not be needed. Of course, that could change later, especially if the winter wheat planting season stays dry around the Black Sea. So far, however, it is difficult to find much sign that the world needs or wants U.S. wheat, in spite of this year's lower global production. Also pressuring prices, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed recent rains improved soil moisture in the southwestern Plains, except for an area south of the Texas Panhandle. USDA's next round of crop estimates are due out Wednesday, Sept. 12 and there is room for another reduction in the world production estimate. For now, December contracts of all three wheats remain under bearish pressure but are holding sideways in a wide range. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.72 Wednesday, 49 cents below the December contract and down from its high in 2018. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.86 Wednesday, also down from its highest price in 2018. September grain futures expire early on Friday, Sept. 14 and several contracts are already showing low open interest.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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