DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Losses Sweep Through Livestock Complex

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN photo by Russ Quinn)

Strong losses have swept through livestock trade with triple-digit losses seen in most contracts. This is adding to the overall market uncertainty through the entire complex as traders are unable to maintain early week gains. Corn markets are lower in light trade activity. September corn futures are 2 1/2 cent lower. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 25 points higher while Nasdaq is up 4 points.


Growing weakness is seen through the entire live cattle complex with traders hovering at $1 per cwt losses across the entire complex. The narrow trading range seen across the market is causing some traders to remain on the sidelines and morning losses seem to be generally contained by the recent market pressure. October live cattle futures are trading $1.10 per cwt lower as very limited movement has been seen due to the volatility Monday and generally no additional directional shifts seen across the entire complex. Prices continue to remain deeply entrenched in the wide sideways market trend that has captured the cattle complex through most of the summer. Cash cattle interest is still undeveloped with bids and asking prices still hard to pin down. It is likely that there will be more interest shown midweek, but this still not likely to spark aggressive interest at this point. The wide shifts in futures trade over the last couple of days, is causing most in cash markets to wait until a sense of direction or stability is seen. This could be late in the week before trade develops. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $1.27 higher (select) and up $0.31 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 50 total loads reported (27 loads of choice cuts, 10 loads of select cuts, 8 loads of trimmings, 5 loads of ground beef).


Triple-digit losses are holding in all contracts except front-month August futures, which are focusing on market expiration and trading 85 cents per cwt lower in limited trade. September contracts are holding at $1.92 per cwt losses while all other nearby contracts are holding losses above $2 per cwt. This is adding even more uncertainty to the entire complex as traders look for increased overall market moves to be seen across the complex and may limit additional support through the rest of the week.


Strong market pressure is quickly developing in all livestock markets Tuesday morning. The significant pullback from limit gains seen Monday is causing some traders to rethink the overall market support that some had hoped would continue through the rest of the week. October futures are holding $1.80 per cwt losses at midday. Although these prices have backed away from early-morning losses, the weaker tone in the complex could quickly change the direction of the market through the rest of the week. Cash prices are higher on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $0.06 higher at $37.23 per cwt with the range from $34.00 to $37.65 on 4,420 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $0.10 lower at $36.78 per cwt with the range from $34.00 to $37.00 on 2,120 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report posted 113 loads selling on the morning report. Pork carcass values gained $3.40 per cwt at $67.57 per cwt. Lean hog index for 8/23 is at $48.93 down 0.57 with a projected two-day index of $47.79, down 1.14.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com


Rick Kment