DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 1 3/4 cents in the September contract and was up 1 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans closed unchanged in the September and were up 1 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 5 1/4 cents in the December Chicago, down 7 3/4 cents in the December Kansas City and down 9 cents in the December Minneapolis.

The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.52 at 95.06. December gold is up $18.70 at $1,212.70 while September silver is up 24 cents and September copper is up 0.0395. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 143 points at 25,800. October crude oil is up $0.82 at $68.65. October heating oil is up $0.0256 while October RBOB gasoline is up $0.0169 and October natural gas is down $0.041.

For the week:

September corn closed down 15 3/4 cents, and December was down 16 cents. September soybeans were down 39 1/2 cents while the November was down 37 1/2 cents. December Chicago wheat was down 43 1/4 cents, December Kansas City wheat was down 45 1/4 cents, and December Minneapolis wheat was down 35 cents.

Corn:

December corn ended up 1 3/4 cents at $3.62 3/4 in light volume Friday, not drawing much attention after dropping 16 cents on the week. The northern and central Midwest saw scattered rains Friday with heavy amounts targeted on Illinois. Much of the Corn Belt has chances for moderate-to-heavy rains the next seven days while the western Plains will be drier and hotter this weekend. Overall, 2018 is turning out to be the sixth consecutive year of good crop weather -- a rare string of bearish luck for futures prices that would be even more bearish if it wasn't for an improving world economy and rising world demand for corn. With a big U.S. corn crop likely this fall, the trend in December corn remains sideways with the seasonal low typically hitting in early October. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.15 Thursday, holding above its low in 2018 and 32 cents below the September contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.52 after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in regard to inflation, "we have seen no clear sign of an acceleration above 2%." December gold is trading up $18.70 with traders also likely recalling Wednesday's dovish change in Fed language.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 1 1/4 cents to $8.55 1/4 Friday in light trading, finding support near its August low after losing 37 1/2 cents on the week. This week's two-day meeting between Chinese and U.S. officials produced nothing substantive, according to various press accounts, and traders will now have to wait until the November meeting between the two countries' leaders. Here in the U.S., a soybean crop that USDA estimated at a record high 4.59 billion bushels (bb) may be getting bigger for all we know as weather has been mostly favorable in late August. With trade relations strained between the U.S. and China, estimating demand for 2018-19 is nearly impossible to do with any confidence, but there is movement in new-crop soybean sales. Early Friday, USDA said 5.4 million bushels (mb) (146,000 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2018-19, adding to a new-crop sales total that USDA reported up 27% from a year ago on Thursday. Currently, November soybeans remain in a sideways trading range, pressured by the anticipation of a big crop while trade policy remains a big wildcard. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.66 Thursday, holding above its lowest price in over nine years and priced 88 cents below the November contract -- the weakest basis in 11 years.

Wheat:

Not only were all three December contracts of U.S. wheat lower every day this week, they showed no sign of slowing down on Friday. December Chicago wheat fell 5 1/4 cents to $5.36 1/2, posting a 43 1/4-cent loss for the week. This week's most visible bearish evidence for wheat may have been the improvement of soil moisture seen in Thursday's new U.S. Drought Monitor for the southern U.S. Plains. We also saw the price of December milling wheat drop 12 euros or 6% in Europe as the bullishness of this month's earlier concerns about dry weather appear to be easing. The less bullish change in sentiment likely also included noncommercial liquidation as net longs in Chicago wheat were near their highest levels on record in last Friday's CFTC data. Fundamentally speaking, the expectation of lower exportable supplies of world wheat should help prices stay supported above last year's lows. Technically, the trends for all three wheats remain sideways with noncommercials in winter wheat under pressure to liquidate. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.93 Thursday, 29 cents below the September contract and down from its high in 2018. DTN's National HRW index closed at $5.08 Thursday, also down from its high in 2018.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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