DTN Closing Livestock Comments

2018 Lean Hog Futures Lose Significant Ground to 2019 Counterparts

John Harrington
By  John Harrington , DTN Livestock Analyst
(DTN file photo)

GENERAL COMMENTS

Light-to-moderate trade volume developed in Southern feedlot country with most live sales ($109) $1-$1.50 lower than last week's weighted averages. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $1.01 lower compared with the Prior Day settlement ($34-$38.50, weighted average $37.24). Corn futures finished a nickel-plus lower, pressured by generally decent late-summer weather conditions and a lack of buying incentive in the face of large harvest prospects. The stock market closed lower, off 76 points lower basis the Dow and off 10 basis the Nasdaq.

LIVE CATTLE

Live futures closed 17 to 62 points lower as contracts drifted back toward the bottom of the lateral trading range in place since early spring. It will be technically important for October and December to close the week above 100-day moving averages (i.e., $108 and $112.25, respectively). Beef cut-outs: higher, up $0.02 (select: $203.99) to $0.33 (choice: $214.37) with moderate demand and light offerings (55 loads of choice cuts, 20 loads of select cuts, 10 loads of trimmings, 22 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:

Steady with weakness evident on Wednesday and Thursday. Light-to-moderate clean-up business is expected throughout Friday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder issues settled narrowly mixed, up 32 to off 25. Nearby contracts seemed somewhat more attractive to buyers, probably thanks to breaking corn prices. Note that the feeder index has reasserted a strong premium over the entire board, a premium probably fed by decent summer feeding profits and ideas of ample feed supplies through the feeding year ahead. CME feeder index 08/22: $150.64, up $0.80.

LEAN HOGS:

Aggressive bear-spreading caused 2018 lean issues to crash by 80 to 242 points, while 2019 contracts finished modestly mixed (i.e., up 20 to off 35). Spot October especially got hammered by the end of the day, no doubt pulled lower by the discount of the cash index. The carcass value closed under pressure tied to softer demand for loins, ribs, hams and bellies. Pork cut-out: $64.85, off $1.05. Cash lean index: 08/21: $50.01, off $0.70 (DTN Projected lean index for 08/22: $49.50, off $0.51).

HOG CALL:

$1 lower. Packer country bids should be lower in the morning, checked by ample supplies and defensive wholesale pork demand.

John A. Harrington can be reached at john.harrington@dtn.com

(BE)

John Harrington