DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 2 1/4 cents in the September contract and down 2 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 7 1/4 cents in the September contract and down 7 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 14 3/4 cents in the December Chicago contract, down 12 1/2 cents in the December Kansas City, and down 5 3/4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract. The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.73 at 95.06. December gold is up $6.00 at $1,200.60 while September silver is up 8 cents and September copper is up $0.0225. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 111 points at 25,869. October crude oil is up $0.42 at $65.84. October heating oil is up $0.0118 while October RBOB gasoline is up $0.0012 and October natural gas is up 0.030.

Corn:

December corn closed down 2 1/4 cents at $3.74 1/4 Tuesday in quiet trading while scattered showers fell around the Great Lakes and eastern Midwest. Corn prices have held roughly steady since suffering a drop after USDA estimated a larger-than-expected 14.6 billion bushel crop on August 10. The weather in late August has been mostly favorable for row crops with moderate temperatures and beneficial rains over much of the central U.S. The seven-day forecast expects more rain around the states bordering the Great Lakes and an extension of moderate amounts into Kansas and Missouri. DTN did its own digital crop tour for 2018, based on satellite and weather data compiled by Gro Intelligence and the national yield estimate so far for corn is 175.0 bushels an acre, a little below USDA's record high 178.4 bushels. The debate over crop conditions will continue, but for now, the trend in December corn remains sideways. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.31 Monday, still above its low in 2018 and 31 cents below the September contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.73 after President Donald Trump made comments again about not wanting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Soybeans:

November soybeans ended down 7 1/4 cents at $8.86 on light volume Tuesday, not finding much news to trade ahead of this week's much-anticipated meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials in Washington. The two-day meeting will start Wednesday and, while expectations for progress are low, soybean traders have to wonder if China will be willing to back off its 25% soybean tariff, knowing that Chinese importers typically need U.S. soybeans between October and February. Aside from trade policy, the weather is looking favorable in late August after decent rain coverage in the western Midwest the past few days along with moderate temperatures, which should continue this week. On the demand side, USDA said 250,000 mt of soybean cake and meal were sold to unknown destinations for 2018-19. That is a pretty good sale, knowing that it took 11.85 million bushels of soybeans to make that much meal. While traders wait for this week's meeting, the trend in November soybeans remains sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.10 Monday, up from its lowest price in over nine years and priced 83 cents below the November contract.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat closed down 14 3/4 cents at $5.47 3/4 Tuesday, pressured by commercial selling as the uptrend in winter wheat appears to be unwinding. Winter wheat prices had been pushing higher since early July with help from dry weather in Europe and reduced crop estimates in several wheat regions, but prices never could sustain trading for long above last year's high. Friday's CFTC report showed noncommercials net long 82,811 contracts as of August 14, near the most bullish position on record. Tuesday's close was the lowest for Chicago wheat in three weeks and turned the momentum of the weekly stochastic bearish -- a bearish technical combination for wheat prices. Fundamentally, world ending-wheat stocks are expected to be lower in 2018-19, which should help prices find a higher level of support than a year ago. With all three wheat prices struggling to trade higher, the trend in Chicago wheat has turned sideways while the other two remain up. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $5.14 Monday, 28 cents below the September contract and down from its high in 2018. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $5.28 Monday, also down from its highest price in 2018.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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