DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Hog Paper Cools From Red-Hot Late-Week Rally

John Harrington
By  John Harrington , DTN Livestock Analyst
(DTN file photo)


Feedlot country was typically quiet for a Monday with buyers and sellers solely focused on the distribution of new showlists. The offering looks larger in Texas, some smaller in Kansas and Nebraska, and about unchanged in Colorado. Overall, ready numbers look about steady with last week. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.37 lower compared with the Prior Day settlement ($38-$41, weighted average $40.21). Corn futures settled several cents lower, pressured by beneficial rains over the weekend in the western and central Corn Belt. The stock market closed higher with the Dow up 89 points and the Nasdaq better by 4.


Cattle traders kicked off the new week with narrowly mixed prices. The late-summer market is converging nicely with spot August now less than a buck below last week's 5-area steer average. Furthermore, fourth quarter premiums could work to slow feedlot movement following Labor Day. Beef cut-outs: sharply higher, up $1.37 (select: $202.29) to $2.68 (choice: $213.98) with moderate-to-good demand and moderate offerings (50 loads of choice cuts, 30 loads of select cuts, 7 loads of trimmings, 14 loads of ground beef).


Steady. Cash goings on Tuesday should be typically quiet with bids and asking prices poorly defined.


Feeder futures closed mostly lower (i.e., off 5-132), pressured by profit-taking and long liquidation. Price erosion in 2019 contracts was minimal compared to spot August and September. On an estimated run of 4,200 head (down from 6,906 last week and near even with last year), Oklahoma City sold feeder steers mostly steady to $3 higher. Heifer mates sold $5-$6 higher. CME feeder index 08/17: $149.66, up $0.07.


Given how red-hot lean futures were on Thursday and Friday of last week, it wasn't surprising Monday to see some waning in buying energy and/or profit-taking. Prices settled 7 to 212 points lower with October and December catching most of the bearish correction. Technically, spot October seemed to attract selling interest just under its 100-day moving average at $60.30. Pork cut-out: $67.18, up $0.41. Cash lean index: 08/16: $52.94, off $1.27 (DTN Projected lean index for 08/17: $51.51, off $1.43).


Steady to $1 lower. Hog buyers are expected to resume procurement chores in the morning with steady/weak bids.

John A. Harrington can be reached at john.harrington@dtn.com


John Harrington