DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level analysis show a near west to east flow over southern Canada with minor short wave troughs moving through this flow. We note very weak troughs over the western Midwest and just off the coast northwest of California and southwest or Oregon. Strong ridge centers have developed in the southern Rockies and in the Atlantic well east of Bermuda. Some ridging also extends northward over the central and northern Rockies region as well. Over the lower Miss river valley we see a break between the two ridge centers, allowing for some unsettled weather in this location.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, although the U.S. model has somewhat higher heights through the southwest U.S. early in the period and the European model has higher heights covering the south and east Midwest, the Delta and the eastern U.S. late in the period. I favor a compromise between the models and it concerns the eastward shift to the ridge, not as strong as the European model would suggest and not as weak as the U.S. model indicates.

The mean trough position that is currently over the Midwest region may be shifting to the north and west during the outlook period. The models show a weak trough moving over the Canadian Prairies and the northern plains early in the outlook period with the ridging over the southern Rockies and the southwestern plains. Later in the period a somewhat deeper trough is shown dropping southward over the Canadian Prairies and into the northern part of the plains region. The ridging is shown moving eastward across the southern plains to the south and east Midwest, the Delta and the eastern U.S. The position of this ridging is similar on both models but as mentioned above the European model features a stronger ridge. The European model shows 594 DM heights as far north as Chicago, Cleveland and central New Jersey on Sunday August 26th. The U.S. model does not have any 594 dm heights indicated at that time.

These changes would likely lead to cooler temperatures in the Canadian Prairies and the northern plains later in the outlook period. I am not sure about how much rainfall would occur with this cooling trend. Since it is late in the period I would tend to side on the lower end of possible shower threats and favor the eastern parts of these locations. The central and southern plains region that will be trending cooler with showers this weekend should trend warmer to hotter with diminishing showers next week. The Midwest region may also turn somewhat warmer or even somewhat hotter late next week with diminishing shower threats. Although northwest areas may see continued show threats due to the troughs moving through the northern plains. The Delta and the southeast U.S. that will see showers and more seasonal temperatures during the next 5 to 7 days may trend drier and somewhat hotter again later in the 6-10 day period.

Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...117 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...28 AT WEST YELLOWSTONE MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…LOUISVILLE KY 3.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, although the US model has somewhat higher heights through the southwest US early in the period and the European model has higher heights covering the south and east Midwest, the Delta and the eastern US late in the period. I favor a compromise between the models and it concerns the eastward shift to the ridge, not as strong as the European model would suggest and not as weak as the US model indicates.

The mean trough position that is currently over the Midwest region may be shifting to the north and west during the outlook period. The models show a weak trough moving over the Canadian Prairies and the northern plains early in the outlook period with the ridging over the southern Rockies and the southwestern plains. Later in the period a somewhat deeper trough is shown dropping southward over the Canadian Prairies and into the northern part of the plains region. The ridging is shown moving eastward across the southern plains to the south and east Midwest, the Delta and the eastern US. The position of this ridging is similar on both models but as mentioned above the European model features a stronger ridge. The European model shows 594 DM heights as far north as Chicago, Cleveland and central New Jersey on Sunday August 26th. The US model does not have any 594 dm heights indicated at that time.

These changes would likely lead to cooler temperatures in the Canadian Prairies and the northern plains later in the outlook period. I am not sure about how much rainfall would occur with this cooling trend. Since it is late in the period I would tend to side on the lower end of possible shower threats and favor the eastern parts of these locations. The central and southern plains region that will be trending cooler with showers this weekend should trend warmer to hotter with diminishing showers next week. The Midwest region may also turn somewhat warmer or even somewhat hotter late next week with diminishing shower threats. Although northwest areas may see continued show threats due to the troughs moving through the northern plains. The Delta and the southeast US that will see showers and more seasonal temperatures during the next 5 to 7 days may trend drier and somewhat hotter again later in the

6-10 day period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Favorable weather for filling corn and soybeans with adequate soil moisture and no persistent hot weather, however it is still too dry in Michigan and in Missouri. The potential for somewhat hotter weather late next week is not overly concerning at this time.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Episodes of above to much above normal temperatures with little rainfall during the next 7 days will deplete soil moisture increasing stress to filling corn and soybeans while favoring the harvest of spring wheat. Later in the 10 day period it may turn somewhat cooler.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS/SORGHUM): Showers and cooler temperatures will favor filling summer crops at this time, especially through northern and central areas. Showers help replenish soil moisture for the upcoming planting season for winter wheat. A return to hotter, drier weather is possible during the 6-10 day period.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Periodic shower activity in the panhandle area during the next 5 to 7 days, mostly light showers but with some heavier. The key growing areas south of the panhandle will continue mostly dry or with only a few light to locally moderate showers during the next 7 days. The best chance for a few showers appears to be Sunday and Monday. Temperatures in the main growing areas will be in the low to middle 90s through Sunday, upper 80s to very low 90s Monday through Wednesday.

WEST EUROPE (WHEAT, CORN, SUGARBEET): A variable temperature pattern during the next 7 days with some periods of hot temperatures. A few showers at times but mostly light to locally moderate amounts, generally below normal for the season. Dryness and summer heat has impacted wheat and corn crops. Sugarbeet is also at risk from the dry weather pattern. An exception to this is in Ireland, Scotland and northern England where post tropical storm Ernesto is expected to bring rain and wind during the weekend period.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT/COTTON/SORGHUM): Drought and above normal temperatures has likely impacted wheat in southern Queensland, north and central New South Wales. Irrigation for cotton and sorghum crops, planted beginning next month, is reported to be low or very low at this time. Mainly dry conditions during the next 5-6 days. Today's model forecast suggests a chance for showers developing in the region at the end of next week or next weekend. This is new from yesterday and late in the period so it is somewhat uncertain at this time.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Limited rainfall and episodes of hot weather stresses filling wheat and canola in the region during the next 5-7 days. Some chance for cooler weather and showers, favoring eastern areas, later in the 10 day period. Crop development is reported to be ahead of normal with some crops maturing and early harvesting started. Yield reductions are expected due to summer time heat and dryness.

NORTH CHINA (CORN AND SOYBEANS): Beneficial showers and thunderstorms favoring central and southern areas during the weekend period and early this week.

Improving prospects in these locations following less than normal rainfall until recently. Key growing areas for soybeans in the north were cool but somewhat drier during this period. Moisture remains favorable for soybeans and corn in Heilongjiang province.

CENTRAL CHINA (CORN, SOYBEANS, GROUNDUTS, COTTON: Tropical storm Rumbia brought rain and gusty winds to the lower Yangtze river valley during the past 24 hours. The post tropical low will turn northward today. Rain is projected through much of the North China Plain today through Sunday. Improving moisture supplies for filling summer crops and building irrigation for the next winter wheat crop.

INDIAN MONSOON: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms have returned to the key growing areas for soybeans in west Madhya Pradesh this week and during the past 24 hours to soybean, cotton and sugarcane areas in Maharashtra and even eastern Gujarat. Key growing areas for cotton and groundnuts in the western Gujarat region were drier and hotter yesterday. However, it appears likely that significant thunderstorm activity will be reaching into these areas as well today and Saturday. This is a change from earlier in the week due to a further south track of the disturbance moving in from the east.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with isolated heavier in southeast and south-central Minnesota, north and east-central areas of Iowa during the past 24 hours. A few light to locally moderate showers otherwise.

Temperatures 70s to very low 90s, warmest over northern Missouri.

East: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms through southern Wisconsin, north, central and southeast Illinois and from central Kentucky to southwest Ohio. Scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier in west and south Indiana. Only a few light showers southern Michigan, northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. Temperatures 80s to very low 90s west, upper 70s to low 80s east.

Forecast...

West: Dry or with only a little light rain or drizzle in eastern areas early today. Mostly dry Saturday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers favoring western and southern areas during Sunday. Temperatures low to middle 80s today, middle to upper 80s Saturday, upper 70s northwest to middle 80s southeast Sunday.

Rain or showers favoring eastern and southern areas during Monday. Mainly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures 70s Monday and Tuesday, upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday.

East: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with some heavier possible will favor central and eastern areas today. Mainly dry or with only a little light rain lingering in southeastern areas Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures low 80s today, low to middle 80s Saturday, middle 80s Sunday.

Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms favoring northern and eastern areas Monday into Tuesday. Mainly dry Wednesday. Temperatures upper 70s to low 80s Monday, middle 70s to very low 80s Tuesday, 70s Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal during the first day or two of the outlook period, near to above normal during the balance of the period. Rainfall near to below normal, except possibly next to above normal through northwestern areas.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures mostly 85 to 95F, hottest in Montana.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with heavier possible through South Dakota during the weekend period. Light showers central and eastern North Dakota during this time. Temperatures low to middle 90s today, 70s and 80s Montana and low 90s elsewhere in the region Saturday, 70s Sunday.

Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers Monday through Wednesday.

Temperatures 70s Monday, 70s and low 80s Tuesday, 80s and low 90s west and low 80s east Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal early in the period, somewhat cooler later in the period. Rainfall below normal west, near to below normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Light showers with locally heavier central and southeast Kansas, northeast Oklahoma and the central portion of the Texas Panhandle. Temperatures middle 80s Nebraska to near 100 north-central Texas, upper 80s to low 90s Kansas.

Forecast: Scattered showers in southeast areas early today and from southeast Colorado to the Texas Panhandle late today or during tonight. Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms during the weekend period through southern and eastern Kansas, northern, central and eastern Oklahoma. Light to moderate showers elsewhere in Kansas and in Nebraska during the weekend.

Temperatures 80s north and central areas and 90s south today and Saturday, 70s and low 80s north and central areas and 80s and low 90s south Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Chance for a few light showers with locally heavier Tuesday or Tuesday night, favoring central Kansas. Dry or with only a few light showers Wednesday. Temperatures 70s north to low 90s south Monday and Tuesday, mostly the 80s Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal west and south, near to above normal northeast areas. Rainfall near to below normal, although a few thundershowers may occur at times...favoring central and east areas.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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