DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 3 3/4 cents in the September contract and up 3 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 28 cents in the September contract and up 28 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 10 1/4 cents in the December Chicago contract, up 12 1/4 cents in the December Kansas City and up 12 1/2 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.01 at 96.58. December gold is down $1.90 at $1,183.30 while September silver is up 21 cents and September copper is up $0.0495. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 434 points at 25,596. September crude oil is up $0.31 at $65.32. September heating oil is up $0.0014 while September RBOB gasoline is down $0.0137 and September natural gas is down 0.028.

Corn:

December corn closed up 3 3/4 cents at $3.79 3/4, helped by Thursday's bullish news for soybeans and another decent week of new-crop export sales. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales totaled 13.3 million bushels (mb) for old-crop and 41.1 mb for new-crop. Total old-crop corn shipments are up 1% from a year ago, but are not likely to reach USDA's 2.400 billion bushel (bb) export estimate. New-crop corn sales on the other hand, are off to a strong start, up 54% from a year ago with the new season yet to begin. The current forecast continues to favor a big corn crop this fall, with moderate temperatures and broad rain coverage across the central U.S. expected the next seven days. The Climate Prediction Center's forecast for September calls for mostly average temperatures and precipitation across the Midwest, favorable for early harvest. With USDA expecting a big, 14.6 bb corn harvest this fall, prices are likely to stay under pressure, but active world demand is helping keep the trend in December corn sideways. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.30 Wednesday, still above its low in 2018 and 31 cents below the September contract. In outside markets, October lean hogs finished up their daily 3-cent limit and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 434 points, also encouraged by news that China and U.S. trade officials are planning to meet later this month.

Soybeans:

November soybeans jumped up 28 cents to $8.97 Thursday, boosted by news that a delegation of officials from China will come to Washington later this month in hopes of making progress on trade differences. For soybeans in particular, shorts have to be nervous as we are approaching the October-to-February period when China is most apt to be in need of buying U.S. soybeans. At the same time, we have seen the rise and fall of trade talk optimism before, and it has not been a good idea to try to project early conclusions. As with corn, the weather forecast is favorable for soybean crops in their later stages of development and USDA's estimate of a record high 4.59 bb soybean crop is reasonable. On the demand side, early interest continues for new-crop soybean sales. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales totaled 4.9 mb for old-crop and 21.0 mb for new-crop soybeans. Old-crop soybean shipments are down 4% from a year ago, slightly under USDA's estimated export pace. New-crop export sales are up 45% from this time a year ago. USDA separately said 5.7 mb (154,404 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans were sold to Mexico for 2018-19. While it seems likely that soybean prices will remain under pressure at least until harvest, the trend in November soybeans remains sideways with trade policy creating a wide range of uncertainty. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.87 Wednesday, back near its lowest price in over nine years and priced 82 cents below the November contract.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat closed up 10 1/4 cents at $5.62, helped by Thursday's rebound in commodity prices and new marketing year high in export sales. Granted, it is still early in the new season and the old bar was set low, but 29.5 million of new-crop export sales was a nice improvement, coming from Mexico, Philippines, Nigeria, and others. Total U.S. wheat shipments in 2018-19 are still in a hole, down 36% from a year ago, but are expected to increase, thanks to this year's smaller world production. USDA also made a rare sales announcement, saying 7.3 mb (200,000 mt) of U.S. hard red winter wheat were sold to Iraq for 2018-19. Here in the U.S., the seven-day forecast is still expecting favorable rains over winter wheat areas and the Climate Prediction Center predicted average temperatures and precipitation in September, which should be good for planting conditions, except where drought remains a concern. For spring wheat, the forecast for the northwestern U.S. Plains and western Canadian Prairie remains mostly dry with episodes of hot temperatures the next seven days and wildfires still active near the Pacific coast. In spite of the recent pullback in wheat prices, the trends for all three U.S. wheats remain up. DTN's National SRW index closed at $5.05 Wednesday, 27 cents below the September contract and down from its high in 2018. DTN's National HRW index closed at $5.16 Wednesday, also down from its highest price in 2018.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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