DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 3/4 cent in the September contract and down 1/2 cent in the December. Soybeans were down 10 3/4 cents in the September contract and down 10 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 9 1/2 cents in the September Chicago contract, down 10 1/2 cents in the September Kansas City and down 12 3/4 cents in the September Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.05 at 96.65. December gold is down $16.20 at $1,184.50 while September silver is down 62 cents and September copper is down $0.1060. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 259 points at 25,041. September crude oil is down $1.97 at $65.07. September heating oil is down $0.0386 while September RBOB gasoline is down $0.0389 and September natural gas is down 0.021.

Corn:

December corn closed down a half-cent at $3.76 Wednesday, surviving the day better than most other grains or commodities in general. Scattered showers fell across the central and southern Midwest Wednesday and they won't be the last. The seven-day forecast shows widespread rain coverage east of the Rocky Mountains with moderate summer temperatures prevailing -- a favorable recipe for row crops. On the demand side, the U.S. Energy Department said last week's ethanol production slipped from 1.100 million to 1.072 million barrels a day, which is still a high level. Ethanol inventory inched up, from 22.9 million to 23.0 million barrels. Earlier, USDA said 4.5 million bushels (mb) (114,572 metric tons) of U.S. corn were sold to unknown, 2.2 mb (55,000 mt) of which were for 2017-18 and the rest for 2018-19. With the U.S. expecting a big corn harvest this fall, prices are likely to stay under pressure, but active world demand is helping keep the trend in December corn sideways. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.31 Tuesday, still above its low in 2018 and 31 cents below the September contract. In outside markets, nearly all commodities were lower with December gold down $16.20 at a new one-year low and September crude oil down $1.97.

Soybeans:

November soybeans dropped 10 3/4 cents to $8.69, also influenced by a mostly red commodity board and a favorable forecast for soybean crops in mid- to late August. Lots of rain is expected to fall over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. the next seven days with the heaviest amounts moving eastward from northern Arkansas into the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures are expected to stay moderate the next 10 days, favorable for row crops in the latter stages of development. As far as weather goes, the forecast is nearly ideal, except for possible areas of local flooding. On the demand side, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) said 167.7 mb of soybeans were crushed, the most ever for the month of July. NOPA's crush total for 2017-18 is up 8% on the year with one month remaining in the old-crop soybean season. Even with USDA expecting a record U.S. soybean crop and the current forecast looking favorable, the trend in November soybeans remains sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.01 Tuesday, back near its lowest price in over nine years and priced 78 cents below the November contract.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat closed down 9 1/2 cents at $5.32 1/4, continuing to fall back from its high in early August with traders seeing beneficial rains in the seven-day forecast for winter wheat areas where planting is roughly a month away. Europe's milling wheat price was quiet Wednesday, down just a half-euro in the December contract, but the rest of the commodity board was not helpful to wheat with significant losses seen nearly everywhere, but livestock. Unfortunately for wheat producers, commodity price weakness in the face of a rising U.S. dollar is likely to continue with more rate hikes expected in 2018. There is a little light rain expected for North Dakota and Montana, but the next seven-days are still mostly dry for the northwestern U.S. with wildfire risk high near the Pacific Coast on both sides of the U.S./Canadian border. In spite of recent losses, the trends for all three U.S. wheats remain up. DTN's National SRW index closed at $5.14 Tuesday, 28 cents below the September contract and down from its high in 2018. DTN's National HRW index closed at $5.26 Tuesday, also down from its highest price in 2018.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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