DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1 1/4 cents in the September contract and up 1 cent in the December. Soybeans were down 9 cents in the August contract and down 8 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 18 1/4 cents in the September Chicago contract, up 18 3/4 cents in the September Kansas City and up 15 1/2 cents in the September Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.25 at 95.21. December gold is down $6.10 at $1,217.10 while September silver is down 12 cents and September copper is down $0.0380. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 12 points at 25,475. September crude oil is up $0.72 at $69.21. September heating oil is up $0.0205 while September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0055 and September natural gas is down 0.001.

Corn:

December corn ended up a penny at $3.85 1/4 in a quiet day of trading after a weekend of widespread, light, scattered showers, but not much in terms of rain amounts, except across northern Iowa. The seven-day forecast expects rain in the Eastern Corn Belt and Southern Plains, but much of the central and Western Corn Belt will be on the dry side with hotter temperatures later this week. Monday's afternoon's good-to-excellent rating may be down slightly for corn, but will be completely ignored after Friday's field-based yield estimates are released in the WASDE report. The more bullish story for corn in 2018 is not getting a lot of attention yet, and that is the 945 million bushel (mb) jump in world corn demand USDA is expecting, partly because 370 mb of it is contained in China where excess supplies can handle the demand. The fundamental outlook for corn prices remains roughly neutral with December corn trading in the middle of its 3 1/2-year range. Technically, the trend is sideways with Friday's USDA report holding potential for surprise. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.39 Friday, up sharply from its lows in 2018 and 31 cents below the September contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar is up 0.25 with a rate hike expected in September and tariffs still a source of concern for the world economy.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 8 3/4 cents at $8.93 1/2 Monday with low trading volume showing once again that soybeans are having a difficult time generating buying interest while the politics of rising tariffs remains a primary concern. Soybeans in northern Iowa received beneficial rain over the weekend, but amounts were sparse elsewhere while pods are being set. The seven-day forecast looks helpful for crops in the eastern Midwest and has some benefit for the Southern Plains, but crops in the central and western Midwest remain mostly dry the next 10 days. USDA has been issuing high good-to-excellent ratings for corn and soybeans all year, but on Friday, all that will be brushed aside when USDA releases its first yield estimates, based on field surveys. A surprise is possible in Friday's numbers and trading is likely to be limited this week by the anticipation of USDA's report. For now, the trends are higher in both November soybeans and December soybean meal, but a sideways, erratic path looks more likely during this volatile time of year. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.23 Friday, up from its lowest price in over nine years and priced 79 cents below the November contract. In August contracts, delivery intentions totaled 760 for soybeans and 956 for soybean oil early Monday. There have been no delivery intentions yet for soybean meal.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat closed up 18 1/4 cents at $5.74 1/2, equal to the high of 2017. September Kansas City wheat was up 18 3/4 cents, also continuing to surge higher with help from a 1.4% gain in the price of Europe's milling wheat. Dry concerns continue to be a concern in Europe, Australia and Russia. September Minneapolis wheat was up 15 1/2 cents Monday as the northwestern U.S. Plains, Pacific Northwest, and western Canadian prairies are all expected to be dry with hotter temperatures later this week, even triple-digits in Montana and Washington. This latest multi-pronged advance of dry weather into the world's wheat regions has happened gradually and is presenting a more bullish outlook than anyone expected earlier this year. Friday's WASDE report will be closely watched for USDA's estimate of global wheat production and for the crop estimates of the troubled areas, especially Europe. With dry weather concerns still active and not going away easily, the trends for all three U.S. wheats remain persistently up. DTN's National SRW index closed at $5.29 Friday, 27 cents below the September contract and near its high in 2018. DTN's National HRW index closed at $5.49 Friday, near its highest price in 2018.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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