DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Livestock Open Week With Generally Moderate Sell-Off

John Harrington
By  John Harrington , DTN Livestock Analyst
(DTN file photo)


Cattle buyers limited their early week energy to the collection of new showlists. Ready numbers appear to be mostly lower with only Colorado feedlots putting out a few more finished steers and heifers. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $1.24 lower compared with the Prior Day settlement ($53-$54.50, weighted average $53.20). The corn trade settled a penny plus higher in light trading. The stock market closed higher with the Dow better by 39 points and the Nasdaq up 47.


Live issues rallied early thanks to greater packer spending on Friday, but soon turned lower thanks to a manageable combination of long liquidation and profit-taking. Closes ranged from 10 to 45 lower. Positively, spot August had little trouble holding above the new ledge of support at 110. Beef cut-outs: significantly higher, up $0.93 (choice: $205.68) to $1.24 (select: $198.33) with moderate to fairly good demand and moderate offerings (40 loads of choice cuts, 31 loads of select cuts, 10 loads of trimmings, 16 loads of ground beef).


Steady to $2 higher. Activity on Tuesday will be typically slow with bids and asking prices poorly defined.


Feeders settled significantly lower, off 65 to 117. Selling pressure was more focused on nearby contracts. Generally speaking, early week losses were tied to profit-taking and the discount of the cash index. On an estimated run of 7,200 head (up from 5,693 last week and 5,059 in 2917), Oklahoma City sold feeder steers and heifers mostly $2-$5 higher. CME feeder index 08/03: $149.74, up $0.82.


Further cash bleeding caused lean issues to keep sliding lower with spot August setting another new contract low. Overall, lean prices settled 15 to 190 in the red. The lion's share of the damage surface in 2018 issues with new year erosion relatively minor. Nearby contracts are generating single-digit oscillators, but oversold conditions often mean little when market trends are so pronounced. Carcass value recovered more than a buck Monday with all primals making significant contributions except the ham and picnic. Pork cut-out: $72.81, up $1.13. CME cash lean index for 08/02: $67.57, off $1.34 (DTN Projected lean index for 08/03: $66.04, off $1.53).


Steady to $1 lower. Between Monday's light country run and the early week recovery in carcass value, hog buyers may have to let up a bit on the brakes when cash business resumes in the morning.

For more from John see http://www.feelofthemarket.com/…


John Harrington