DTN Early Word Grains
Crop Prices Firm to Start Week
December corn was up 3 cents, November soybeans were up 6 1/2 cents, and September Kansas City (HRW) wheat was up 10 1/2 cents.
CME Globex Recap:Dow Jones futures are trading slightly higher even though most of the world's stock markets are starting modestly lower early Monday with higher interest rates an active concern. Outside commodities were mixed early with crude oil trading higher while most grains were higher, coming off a mostly dry weekend with little rain in the seven-day forecast.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:Previous closes on Friday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 76.01 points at 25,451.07 and the S&P 500 down 18.62 points at 2,818.82 while the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 2.96%. Early Monday, DJIA futures were up 7 points. Asian markets are lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 167.91 (-0.7%) and China's Shanghai Composite down 4.54 (-0.2%). European markets are modestly lower with London's FTSE 100 down 23.88 points (-0.3%), Germany's DAX down 40.21 points (-0.3%), and France's CAC 40 down 22.34 points (-0.4%). The euro was up .0033 and the U.S. dollar index was down 0.21 at 94.46. September 30-year T-Bonds were down 17/32nd while August gold was down $1.60 at $1,221.40 and September crude oil was up $0.70 at $69.39. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were steady to higher and Malaysian palm oil futures were up 0.3%.
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | Dry conditions in the southwestern Corn Belt plus Michigan are helping support row crop prices. | 1) | USDA's good-to-excellent ratings for row crops are on the high end, but the first field-based yield estimate is not due out until August 10. |
| 2) | IGC estimates expect significant reductions in exportable world ending stocks of corn and wheat in 2018-19. | 2) | Moderate temperatures in late July are helpful to crop conditions. |
| 3) | Rising prices of milling wheat in Europe, related to dry weather have turned U.S. wheat prices higher. | 3) | China's 25% tariff is hurting U.S. soybean demand. |
| 4) | 4) |
CORN December corn is up 3 cents early Monday, holding firm after a weekend of mostly dry weather across the Corn Belt, except for areas around Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. High temperatures will be mostly around the 80s in the Corn Belt this week with rain kept east of Illinois the next few days. USDA's good-to-excellent rating for corn may see a slight decline Monday afternoon from the drier weather, but crop ratings are only vaguely helpful and will be replaced by USDA's first field-based yield estimates on August 10. For the past two weeks, December corn has been correcting back from its lows with plenty of weather risk still ahead.
SOYBEANS November soybeans are up 6 1/2 cents Monday, also finding early support from a pleasant, but mostly dry weekend of weather that is expected to continue this week west of Indiana. It is helpful to crops that temperatures will stay moderate this week across most of the Midwest with hotter readings expected in the western Plains by Friday. USDA's good-to-excellent rating for soybeans is apt to be steady or possibly a little lower Monday afternoon. On the demand side, strained relations with China continue to be an ongoing concern for U.S. soybeans and the administration announced a $12 billion aid package for farmers last week that is supposed to provide some financial help this fall. For now, November soybeans are trading up from their lows, but the trend remains down with the seasonal low not due until early October.
WHEAT September K.C. wheat is up 10 1/2 cents early, also helped by Monday's higher wheat prices in France. Last week's Wheat Quality Council Spring Wheat Tour found the spring wheat crop to be less impressive than USDA's 79% good-to-excellent rating and things aren't likely to get better this week with hot and dry weather expected from the Dakotas to the Pacific Northwest. The one helpful influence for crops is that Minnesota is expecting moderate showers later this week. Dry weather also remains a concern in Europe and Australia and is helping to keep prices supported.
The one thing the U.S. has not seen yet is a noticeable increase in exports and the next inspections report is due out at 10 a.m. CDT. Given the recent changes, the lows in July should hold as firm support.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.32 | $0.01 | -$0.30 | Sep | $0.001 |
| Soybeans: | $8.08 | $0.08 | -$0.63 | Aug | -$0.010 |
| SRW Wheat: | $5.03 | -$0.06 | -$0.28 | Sep | $0.004 |
| HRW Wheat: | $5.16 | -$0.02 | -$0.17 | Sep | -$0.005 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.55 | $0.05 | -$0.38 | Sep | $0.001 |
Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com
Todd can be followed throughout the day on Twitter @ToddHultman1
(KR)
Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]