DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Cattle Paper Opens Week With Moderate Losses

John Harrington
By  John Harrington , DTN Livestock Analyst
(DTN file photo)


Activity in feedlot country was typically limited to the distribution of new showlists. The fed offering looks mixed, smaller in the South, larger in Colorado and about unchanged in Nebraska. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $1.33 lower compared with the Prior Day settlement ($57-$63.50, weighted average $61.07). The corn market closed generally a nickel higher, supported by a mostly dry forecast for major growing areas over the next week. The stock market closed lower with the Dow off 144 points and the Nasdaq down by 107.


Apparently, traders of live futures were disappointed by Friday's late country trade, both in terms of price level and volume. Overall, prices settled moderately lower, off 17 to 70. Positively, August through December did manage to finish 40-60 points above session-lows. Beef cut-outs: lower, off $0.29 (select: $197.98) to $0.42 (choice: $204.72) with light demand and light to moderate offerings (44 loads of choice cuts, 20 loads of select cuts, 9 loads of trimmings, 17 loads of ground beef).


Steady. Our hunch is that cash trading will surface earlier than normal this week thanks to small trade volume total last week (yes, we've said that before), but probably not as early as Tuesday. Look for a quiet day with bids and asking prices poorly defined.


While feeders generally followed their counterparts in the live market lower, selling energy here was further fueled by the early week rally in the corn trade. When the final smoke cleared, feeder issues had faltered by 70 to 110. On an estimated run of 5,600 head (up from 4,267 last week and 2,702 in 2017), Oklahoma City sold feeder steers and heifers unevenly steady. Steers and heifers calves were marked $3-$5 higher on a limited test. CME feeder index 07/27: $149.20, off $0.37.


Ignoring the tall premium status of the cash index, spot August closed 35 points lower. However, the rest of the lean complex settled moderately higher (i.e., up 12 to 62). The pork carcass value continued to implode Monday, especially hammered by a $12.10 drop in the belly primal. Pork cut-out: $74.54, off $2.430. CME cash lean index for 07/26: $73.46, off $0.97 (DTN Projected lean index for 07/27: $72.17, off $1.29).


$1-$2 lower. Further signs of negative fundamentals will keep hog buyers on the defensive in the morning.

For more from John see http://www.feelofthemarket.com/…


John Harrington