DTN Early Word Grains
Grains a Little Higher in Summertime
December corn was up 1 1/4 cents, November soybeans were up 3/4 cent, and September Kansas City (HRW) wheat was up 3 1/4 cents.
CME Globex Recap:Major stock markets are a little lower early Monday and outside commodities are mixed -- a fairly quiet start to the week after concerns about trade tensions were expressed over the weekend at the meeting of G-20 nations in Argentina. Grains are starting a little higher after a mostly dry weekend.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:Previous closes on Friday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 6.38 points at 25,058.12 and the S&P 500 down 2.66 points at 2,801.83 while the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 2.89%. Early Monday, DJIA futures were down 15 points. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 300.89 (-1.3%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 30.27 (+1.1%). European markets are a little lower with London's FTSE 100 down 20.11 points (-0.3%), Germany's DAX down 10.43 points (-0.1%), and France's CAC 40 down 19.84 points (-0.4%). The euro was down .0030 and the U.S. dollar index was up 0.08 at 94.56. September 30-year T-Bonds were up 2/32nds while August gold was down $2.30 at $1,228.80 and September crude oil was up $0.33 at $68.59. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were steady to lower and Malaysian palm oil futures were down 1.2%.
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | USDA's lower crop ratings for corn and soybeans plus hot and dry conditions in the southwestern Corn Belt are helping support row crop prices. | 1) | USDA's crop ratings for row crops are still higher than a year ago. |
| 2) | Commercials remain net long soybeans, soybean oil, and Minneapolis wheat -- three commodities that have gotten cheap. | 2) | The Federal Reserve remains committed to gradual rate hikes in spite of trade policy concerns. |
| 3) | New highs for milling wheat in France are helping U.S. winter wheat prices hold sideways, above their 2018 lows. | 3) | CNBC reported President Trump is ready to enact tariffs against all $505 billion of goods from China. |
CORN December corn is up 1 1/4 cents early Monday, a slightly higher start to the week after a weekend that was mostly dry across the Corn Belt with hot temperatures in the southern Plains and more moderate temperatures over the rest of the Corn Belt. Rain will stay close to the Atlantic coast the next few days, but is expected to come to the dry areas of Colorado to Missouri late in the seven-day period, but Missouri has had hopes dashed before. Monday afternoon's good-to-excellent rating for corn is likely to drop some more after last week's excessive heat in the southern Plains, but the overall crop is still doing well in most areas. Technically, the trend in corn remains down, but the July low near $3.50 in December corn may have been cheap enough to entice support. USDA's outlook for lower world corn supplies in 2018-19 continues to offer support for prices above last year's lows.
SOYBEANS November soybeans are up 3/4 cent early Monday, staying above its July low of $8.26, but not going anywhere fast while China's soybean tariff remains a concern. As with corn, USDA's good-to-excellent rating for soybeans will likely be a little lower in Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report, but conditions should be good throughout most of the Midwest. The seven-day forecast isn't offering much rain in the Midwest until showers are expected to move from Colorado to Missouri closer to next weekend. Hotter temperatures will stay to the south while most of the Midwest is more moderate. Soybean demand continues to be a problem without China's eager participation and that is not likely to change for at least another couple months. Friday's CFTC data showed commercials maintaining a small net long position of 25,186 contracts as of July 17. For now, the trend in soybeans remains down with the seasonal low not due until early October.
WHEAT September K.C. wheat is up 3 1/4 cents early, continuing to find support from concerns of dryness in southwestern Canada, eastern Australia, north-central Europe and southern Russia. In Oregon, wheat fields have literally been on fire with hot and dry conditions continuing to afflict the region this week. September Minneapolis wheat is up 7 1/2 cents early and spring wheat crop ratings are not likely to look as rosy on Monday afternoon. Earlier this month, it looked like wheat prices were ready to follow their typical seasonal trend lower, but that has now changed with weather problems hanging on longer than usual. The trends in winter wheat are sideways. The trend in Minneapolis wheat remains down, but commercials are net long 13,691 contracts as of July 17.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.26 | $0.04 | -$0.30 | Sep | $0.003 |
| Soybeans: | $7.89 | $0.04 | -$0.60 | Aug | -$0.001 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.89 | $0.12 | -$0.27 | Sep | -$0.002 |
| HRW Wheat: | $4.93 | $0.12 | -$0.16 | Sep | -$0.001 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.24 | $0.18 | -$0.31 | Sep | -$0.002 |
Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com
Todd can be followed throughout the day on Twitter @ToddHultman1
(KR)
Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]