DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 4 cents in the September contract and was up 4 cents in the December. Soybeans closed up 3 3/4 cents in the August and were up 3 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 11 3/4 cents in the September Chicago, up 12 cents in the September Kansas City, and was up 18 1/4 cents in the September Minneapolis. The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.76 at 94.18. August gold is up $8.10 at $1,232.10 while September silver is up 16 cents and September copper is up 0.0620. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 13 points at 25,077. September crude oil is up $0.12 at $68.36. September heating oil is up $0.0192 while September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0207 and September natural gas is down $0.006.

For the week:

September corn closed up 14 1/4 cents and December was up 14 1/4 cents. August soybeans were up 31 cents while the November was up 30 1/2 cents. September Chicago wheat was up 19 cents, September Kansas City wheat was up 16 3/4 cents, and September Minneapolis wheat was up 23 1/4 cents.

Corn:

December corn closed up 4 cents at $3.69 Friday and was up 14 1/4 cents on the week, finally breaking the downward momentum that plagued prices since late May. Monday's modest reduction in USDA's good-to-excellent ratings offered some acknowledgement that all is not well everywhere and this week's excessive heat in the southwestern Corn Belt added to concerns, while more rain fell over some of the wetter areas of the north-central Midwest. We still have to say the bulk of this year's corn crop looks good (see Friday's DTN article, "July Crops..." by Staff Reporter Emily Unglesbee) with moderate summer temperatures covering most of the Corn Belt, but the seven-day forecast is mostly dry west of Indiana and weather risk is still in play. Technically, the good news for corn bulls is that the downward momentum of the past seven weeks has been broken and the July low of $3.50 should serve as support, moving forward. For now, the trend remains down for December corn with all eyes on weather. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.21 Thursday, up from its lowest price in 2018 and 30 cents below the September contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.76 after President Donald Trump repeated his criticism of Federal Reserve plans to gradually increase interest rates. The comments started Thursday, just as the U.S. dollar was challenging its one-year high.

Soybeans:

November soybeans gained 3 1/4 cents at $8.64 3/4 and were up 30 1/2 cents on the week with help from concerns about hot and dry weather around Kansas and Missouri. The rest of the Midwest has enjoyed more moderate temperatures this week and that is expected to continue next week. The forecast looks drier the next seven days, west of Indiana, just as more soybeans are starting to set pods when an occasional shower would be helpful. President Trump stoked the trade war fire early Friday when he told CNBC that he was ready to enact tariffs against all $505 billion of China's goods. Soybeans were trading a little higher at the time and then fell back after the comments were made, as traders remain leery of where this dispute is headed. Overall, the soybean crop continues to look generally favorable, but weather is still a risk as we head toward the end of July. USDA will have its first field-based yield estimate on August 10, but even that has a wide margin of error. For now, the trend remains down for soybeans. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.86 Thursday, up from its lowest price in over nine years and priced 60 cents below the August contract.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat closed up 11 3/4 cents and September K.C. wheat was up 12 cents at $5.08 1/2, back above the $5.00 mark after surviving a challenge of its 2018 low the past couple weeks. This week's higher winter wheat prices were helped by ongoing concerns of dry weather in Europe and eastern Australia, along with a threat of heavy rain in southern Russia at harvest time. In Friday morning's DTN Market Weather video, Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson showed not only has eastern Australia experienced drought for over a year, but the latest forecast also remains dry at least through October. Here in the U.S., spring wheat crops are being threatened for the first time in 2018 with a forecast for expanded drought in the Pacific Northwest, released on Thursday and by reports of wildfires damaging fields in Oregon. September Minneapolis wheat was up 18 1/4 cents Friday and up 23 1/4 cents on the week. Technically, the trends for all three wheat futures remain down, but the winter wheat contracts have stayed above their 2018 lows and are close to turning higher. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.78 Thursday, up from its lowest price in two months and 27 cents below the September contract. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.81, also up from its lowest price in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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