DTN Early Word Grains
Row Crops Mixed, More Tariffs Coming?
December corn was up 1 1/4 cents, November soybeans were down 1 1/2 cents, and September Kansas City (HRW) wheat was up 5 1/4 cents.
CME Globex Recap:With the exception of a two percent gain in the Shanghai Composite Index, most major stock markets are mixed early Friday as CNBC reported President Trump is ready to enact tariffs against all $505 billion of goods from China. The U.S. dollar is slightly lower and Dow Jones futures are getting ready to open lower, trading down 100 points early. Outside commodities are mixed.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:Previous closes on Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 134.79 points at 25,064.50 and the S&P 500 down 11.13 points at 2,804.49 while the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 2.85%. Early Friday, DJIA futures were down 100 points. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 66.80 (-0.3%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 56.73 (+2.0%). European markets are also mixed with London's FTSE 100 up 17.09 points (0.2%), Germany's DAX down 5.064 points (-0.04%), and France's CAC 40 down 8.14 points (-0.1%). The euro was up .0011 and the U.S. dollar index was down 0.07 at 95.09. September 30-year T-Bonds were down 5/32nds while August gold was up $1.40 at $1,225.40 and August crude oil was up $0.99 at $70.45. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were steady to higher and Malaysian palm oil futures were steady.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | USDA's lower crop ratings for corn and soybeans, plus hot and dry conditions in the southwestern Corn Belt, are helping support prices. | 1) | USDA's crop ratings for row crops are still higher than a year ago. |
| 2) | Commercials are net long soybeans, soybean oil, and Minneapolis wheat -- three commodities that have gotten cheap. | 2) | Fed Chairman Powell remains committed to gradual rate hikes in spite of trade policy concerns. |
| 3) | Chicago and K.C. wheat continue to hold above their 2018 lows | 3) | CNBC reported President Trump is ready to enact tariffs against all $505 billion of goods from China. |
CORN December corn is up 1 1/4 cents early Monday, holding its gain for the week with help from hot and dry conditions in the southwestern Corn Belt. There are scattered showers around the Midwest early Monday with locally heavy rain in Indiana, but the seven-day forecast is mostly dry for the Corn Belt. The exception is the eastern third of the U.S., east of Illinois where a broad coverage of moderate to heavy amounts are expected from the Gulf to Canada. Overall, the bulk of U.S. corn is doing well, helped by this week's more moderate temperatures, but weather risk is still in play. Technically, the trend in corn remains down, but the low near $3.50 in December corn may have been cheap enough to entice support. USDA's outlook for lower world corn supplies in 2018-19 remains one factor offering to support prices above last year's lows.
SOYBEANS November soybeans are down 1 1/2 cents, also showing concerns of hot and dry weather in the southwestern Midwest, but tempered by ongoing concerns about the trade war with China. Early Friday, CNBC reported President Trump is ready to put tariffs on all $505 billion of goods from China, a move that raises the stakes once again and we don't yet know China's response. Meanwhile, soybean crops in the U.S. are enjoying mostly moderate temperatures, but see little rain in the seven-day forecast west of Indiana. After seven weeks of sharply lower prices, soybeans are finally getting a small bounce, based on summer weather concerns, but lack of resolution with the world's largest buyer of soybeans continues to be a bearish concern. The trend in soybeans remains down with the seasonal low not due until early October.
WHEAT September K.C. wheat is up 5 1/4 cents, threatening a higher close for the week as winter wheat prices continue to hold above their 2018 lows. In the big picture, K.C. wheat prices are still near their lowest prices in over eleven years, but there has been improvement since the fall of 2016, thanks to a modest pullback in the level of world wheat supplies available to the market. Dry weather in southern Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and Europe have all helped keep this year's production a little lower than last year's record global crop. However, these have been modest, not drastic changes and the expectation for the U.S. to have 985 billion bushels of ending wheat supplies in 2018-19 is keeping a lid on prices. For now, the trends remain down for all three wheats while September Chicago and K.C. wheat are holding stubbornly above their 2018 lows -- signs of possible support.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.21 | $0.04 | -$0.30 | Sep | $0.002 |
| Soybeans: | $7.86 | $0.04 | -$0.60 | Aug | $0.000 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.78 | $0.09 | -$0.27 | Sep | -$0.010 |
| HRW Wheat: | $4.81 | $0.08 | -$0.16 | Sep | -$0.003 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.06 | $0.07 | -$0.30 | Sep | -$0.018 |
Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com
Todd can be followed throughout the day on Twitter @ToddHultman1
(KR)
Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
