DTN Early Word Grains

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

December corn was up 2 cents, November soybeans were up 4 3/4 cents, and September Kansas City (HRW) wheat was up 5 3/4 cents.

CME Globex Recap:

Global stock markets, including Dow Jones futures, are steady to lower overnight, but most commodities are mixed and grains are starting higher. Triple-digit temperatures are expected in the southwestern U.S. Plains Wednesday, followed by much of the Corn Belt experiencing temperatures in the 90s on Friday.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

Previous closes on Tuesday saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average gain 30.31 points to 24,283.11 while the S&P 500 was up 5.99 points to 2,723.06 and the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 2.88%. Early Wednesday, DJIA futures were down 118 points. Asian markets were lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 70.23 points (-0.3%) and China's Shanghai Composite down 31.33 (-1.1%). European markets were a little lower with London's FTSE 100 down 7.34 points (-0.1%), Germany's DAX down 27.46 points (-0.2%), and France's CAC 40 down 13.85 points (-0.3%). The euro was down 0.0012 and the U.S. dollar index was up 0.07 at 94.73. September 30-year T-Bonds were up 17/32nds while August gold was down $0.10 at $1,259.80 and August crude oil was up $0.58 at $71.11. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were steady to higher and Malaysian palm oil futures were up 1.8%.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	December corn continues to hold above last Tuesday's low, supported by USDA's lower estimate of world ending corn stocks.	1)	Flooding reports aside, Monday's U.S. crop ratings stayed high for row crops and spring wheat.
2)	Even if the odds seem slim, a surprise of adverse weather this summer or unexpected trade agreement would put shorts on their heels.	2)	The growing trade war between the U.S. and the rest of the world is keeping investors cautious in a widening circle of markets.
3)	So far, September Chicago wheat is holding above its three-month low.	3)	The trends remain lower for all three wheats with limited weather threats so far in 2018.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN December corn is up 2 cents early Wednesday, looking at a drier weather map with scattered showers in South Dakota and on the eastern edge of the Corn Belt. Triple-digit temperatures will cover much of the southwestern U.S. Plains on Wednesday and radiate 90 degree temperatures deeper into the Corn Belt by Friday (See "Possible Fourth of July Heat" by DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson). The seven-day forecast expects moderate to heavy rain in the central and northern Corn Belt, which is not welcome news to areas already experiencing flooding. The rest of the Corn Belt will be drier heading to the July 4th holiday. Crop conditions are still considered generally favorable as long as we also recognize flooding problems and what appears to be a drier, hotter pattern as crops near pollination. Technically, the trend in corn is still down, but there remains plenty of weather uncertainty and a fundamental outlook for lower world corn supplies in 2018-19, which should help prices find support.

SOYBEANS November soybeans are up 4 3/4 cents early, also appearing to find short-term support near their lowest November prices in over two years. However, as cheap as soybean prices currently are, we cannot say yet that we see signs of commercial buying and that is a bearish concern with USDA's Acreage and June 1 soybean stocks report due out on Friday. We also have to wonder if commercials are as concerned about the volatile political climate with China as everyone else is. Soybeans typically have enough weather uncertainty this time of year, but the political uncertainty of trade with China continues to be a bearish factor that is limiting the buy side of this market. While the potential for increased volatility in a situation like this remains high in either direction, the trend in soybeans remains clearly down while crops look generally favorable for now.

WHEAT September K.C. wheat is up 5 3/4 cents early, likely a response of bargain hunters taking advantage of prices that fell to their lowest level in five months on Tuesday. Triple-digit temperatures throughout the southwestern Plains on Wednesday will bring a return of harvest activity after recent rains slowed progress. Lighter rain amounts in the eastern Midwest may give SRW wheat a bit of a break from recent rains and moderate to heavy showers in North Dakota will help maintain high crop ratings for spring wheat. Outside of North America, southern Russia remains this year's main concern of dry weather, but as long as wheat's problem areas remain limited, world supplies are expected to remain high and prices relatively low. The trends in all three wheats remain down.

DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.25	$0.02	-$0.28	Jul	$0.000
Soybeans:	$8.07	-$0.06	-$0.60	Jul	$0.009
SRW Wheat:	$4.49	-$0.06	-$0.21	Jul	$0.012
HRW Wheat:	$4.56	-$0.10	-$0.02	Jul	$0.017
HRS Wheat:	$5.20	-$0.06	-$0.13	Jul	$0.010

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Todd can be followed throughout the day on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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