DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and interior eastern Canada. A ridge off the east coast of Canada into western Greenland. And a trough over eastern Greenland. This is a warm/hot pattern in western Canada, mild/warm central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the western Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the interior western US. A ridge in the central and eastern US. And a weak trough in the western atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located over the lower Ohio Valley, western Cuba, and off the northwest coast of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The US and European models are in good agreement through 5 days, fair agreement days 6-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a weak ridge over Alaska. A trough over western Canada. A ridge over central Canada. And a trough over eastern Canada and Greenland. This will be a warm/hot pattern for western and central Canada, variable in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A weak ridge over the southwest US. A weak trough over the central US. A weak ridge over the eastern US. And a weak trough over the western atlantic. The weak trough in the central US will be focus of frequent episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the central plains and Midwest. It will be drier to the north and south. Temperatures in the central US will be on the warm/hot side under a west to southwest flow aloft.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to above normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 5 days, mostly below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall mostly below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...101 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...27 AT TUOLUMNE MEADOWS CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY...DULUTH MN 1.75 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement early in the period. Later in the period the models are in good agreement on the placement of the subtropical ridge but disagree on the position of the down stream troughs.

The first two days of the period will see a weak to moderate trough over the north-central US region. Scattered thundershowers at that time look to favor the Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri area. Later in the period the upper level ridge reforms over the central and southern Rockies and the southwestern plains. This likely means hot and dry weather redevelops over the west and south portion of the central plains crop belt. From there it is a little more uncertain. The US model has a weak trough moving over the western and northern Midwest and then the eastern Midwest during the period. The model also shows a new trough moving over the Canadian Prairies region. This probably means there will be additional chances for showers in these areas but probably not to the point of near to above normal levels. The European model as a somewhat stronger trough moving over the western and eastern Midwest region during this period.

This may eventually put the cold front southward into the Delta and westward into the eastern plains region. This model has somewhat less trough in the Canadian Prairies.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Hot weather in the Midwest during the weekend depletes soil moisture and increases stress on developing corn and soybeans.

However frequent episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next 7 days along with cooler temperatures by midweek should allow for a return to favorable crop conditions.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS/SORGHUM): Very hot, mostly dry, weekend weather maintains high stress levels on developing summer crops while favoring mature wheat and the wheat harvest. Thunderstorms and more seasonal temperatures are expected in some locations Tuesday and Wednesday. This should help ease stress to summer crop while being somewhat unfavorable for maturing wheat.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for development of spring wheat, corn and soybeans throughout the northern plains at this time. Although a drier, warmer trend in North Dakota will bear watching.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms occurred during the weekend period. A return to drier weather is likely during this week and next. A more seasonal temperature pattern through Thursday and then hot weather redevelops.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WHEAT, CORN, SUNFLOWER): A recent Increase in shower and thundershower activity in western and central Ukraine should help ease stress to developing corn and soybeans. However, eastern Ukraine and south Russia continue drier and somewhat hotter at this time.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): A drier, warmer to hotter period is expected during this week. However, it does not appear to last long enough to be overly concerning for developing crops at this time. It will, however, bear watching.

NORTHEAST CHINA (CORN AND SOYBEANS): Scattered thunderstorms occurred through the southern part of this region at the end of last week. The area will see occasional showers and thundershowers during the coming days, helping to ease dryness concerns for this crop area.

INDIAN MONSOON: The leading edge of the Monsoon is over the northern part of south Indian and in northeast India today and is uneven and overall weaker than normal for the date. The leading edge of the Monsoon is about where it should be at June 10th on the west coast and about where in should be on June 5th in the northeast. There are signs that the rains may increase somewhat over southern and in northeast India this week but I am not sure whether it would make much progress towards the northwest.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.25-1.25 inch and locally heavier, through southern and central Minnesota and eastern South Dakota during the weekend period. Showers, 0.10-0.75 inch, northwest Iowa and portions of Nebraska mainly overnight last night. Temperatures 88 to 100F Saturday, 86 to 96F Sunday...except it was cooler in northeast and central South Dakota Sunday.

East: A few thunderstorms in southern Wisconsin and extreme north Illinois mainly occurring Friday. Dry or with only isolated light showers otherwise during the weekend period. Temperatures 88 to 95F Saturday, 91 to 96F Sunday.

Forecast...

West: Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring northern and central areas today and tonight, central and southern areas Tuesday, southern and western areas Wednesday. Rainfall may become locally heavy during the period, especially in northern Iowa tonight and in Nebraska and southwest Iowa Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal north and above normal south today, below to near normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring central and southern areas Thursday, southern and eastern areas Friday. Drier Saturday, although thundershowers may return to west and southwest areas at night. Temperatures average below to near normal.

East: Scattered afternoon or evening thundershowers favoring northwest areas today. Scattered showers favoring north and central areas tomorrow, south areas Wednesday. Rainfall 0.25-1.00 inch and locally heavier expected. Temperatures above normal today, below normal north and above normal south Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms develop in southern and western areas and spread east and north during Thursday and Friday. Light to locally moderate showers may linger Saturday. Temperatures average near to mostly below normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal north, near to above normal south. Rainfall near to above normal.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.30-1.00 inch and locally heavier, through south and east-central Montana, southwest North Dakota and most of South Dakota during the weekend period. Scattered light showers with isolated heavier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Saturday, mostly below normal Sunday.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thundershowers mainly in Montana and South Dakota today and tonight. Showers southwest and dry elsewhere in the region Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal west and southeast areas and near to above normal northeast locations during this period.

Mostly dry Thursday. Dry or with only light showers favoring west and south areas Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average below to near normal west and south areas, above to near normal northeast.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers, 0.25-1.00 inch, occurred in the Texas Panhandle during the weekend period. Showers, 0.10-0.50 inch and locally heavier, in southwest Kansas, northeast Colorado and southern Nebraska. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures 92 to 100F Saturday, except northeast Colorado was somewhat cooler. Temperatures 89 to 99F Sunday, except it was only 77 to 86 in northeast Colorado and 83 to 93 through the Texas Panhandle.

Forecast: Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers through southern Nebraska today or tonight, isolated activity otherwise. Moderate to heavy thunderstorms favoring west and north Kansas and southern Nebraska during Tuesday or Tuesday night. Scattered thundershowers Wednesday through northern and eastern areas. Temperatures above normal today, except northwest areas should be cooler. Cooler weather spread east and south tomorrow and Wednesday.

Scattered afternoon thundershowers favoring northeast and southeast areas Thursday and Friday. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers Saturday favoring north and central locations. Temperatures average below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Rainfall near to below normal west and southeast areas, near to above normal northeast and east-central locations.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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