DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 2 cents in the July contract and up 2 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 5 1/4 cents in the July contract and up 5 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 14 1/4 cents in the July Chicago contract, up 14 cents in the July Kansas City and up 11 1/4 cents in the July Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.05 at 93.53. June gold is up $0.70 at $1,291.60 while July silver is up 5 cents and July copper is up $0.0295. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 62 points at 24,951. July crude oil is down $0.12 at $72.23. July heating oil is up $0.0063 while July RBOB gasoline is up $0.0101 and July natural gas is up $0.090.

Corn:

July corn closed up 2 cents at $4.04 3/4, near its highest price in nine months with ongoing support from dry weather in Brazil where the corn crop estimate is shrinking everyday as each seven-day forecast shows virtually no rain. Late Monday, USDA said 81% of corn was planted and 50% was emerged as producers make up for this year's slow planting start. Illinois was 96% planted while progress across the northern states but remained behind their five-year averages. Overall, the U.S. corn crop is off to a good start, except for areas of moderate drought in northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Dry conditions in the western Plains are also limiting factors. With Brazil's corn crop estimate coming down, demand for U.S. corn is going up and that is helping sustain uptrends in both, July corn and new-crop corn. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.69 Monday, still near its highest price in 23 months and priced 34 cents below the July contract. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar is quiet, trading down 0.05 while most commodities are higher.

Soybeans:

July soybeans closed up 5 1/4 cents at $10.30 1/2 Tuesday, benefiting a second day from news that China and the U.S. have agreed to suspend proposed tariffs as trade negotiations appear to be making progress. Late Monday, USDA said 56% of soybeans were planted and 26% were emerged, both ahead of their five-year average paces. The latest seven-day forecast shows rain will add to planting delays in Minnesota, but overall, row crops are off to a good start in 2018 after getting past a cold April. The main concern for old-crop soybean prices continues to be the lack of China's participation in U.S. markets, made possible by Brazil's record harvest earlier this year. November soybean prices, on the other hand, are holding firmer as China will likely need U.S. soybeans from roughly October to January. Technically, the trend is down in July soybeans, but sideways in new-crop soybeans where futures spreads continue to show a bullish commercial outlook. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.57 Monday, up from its lowest price in three months and priced 68 cents below the July contract.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat closed up 14 1/4 cents and July Kansas City wheat was up 14 cents at $5.40 1/2, near its highest prices in 10 months with ongoing support from drought in the southwestern U.S. Plains and a forecast for hot temperatures in the region this weekend. Late Monday, USDA said 61% of winter wheat was headed and 36% was rated good to excellent, the same as a week ago. DTN's Winter Wheat Condition Index gained one point to 58, which is also the lowest crop rating in four years. USDA also said 79% of spring wheat was planted and 37% was emerged, bouncing back from this year's slow, cold start. The biggest planting delay is in Montana where 66% of spring wheat is in the ground. Outside of North America, dry early conditions in Australia are the only significant threat at this time, but the year is still young and deserves monitoring. Technically, the trends remain higher for the July contracts of both, Chicago and K.C. wheat. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.77 Friday, down from its highest price in 10 months and 31 cents below the July contract. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.88, down from its highest price in over two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ToddHultman1

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