DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 2 1/4 cents in the July contract and up 1 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 7 3/4 cents in the July contract and down 2 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 12 cents in the July Chicago contract, up 7 cents in the July Kansas City, and up 7 cents in the July Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.22 at 91.56. June gold is down $4.40 at $1,319.00 while May silver is down 11 cents and May copper is up $0.0065. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 46 points at 24,265. June crude oil is up $0.43 at $68.55. June heating oil is up $0.0088 while June RBOB gasoline is up $0.0005 and June natural gas is down $0.014.

Corn:

July corn closed up 2 1/4 cents Monday, a modest gain on decent volume that started with higher hopes as Brazil is looking at another dry forecast for the next seven days. The recent dry stretch is looking more serious as time goes by while Brazil's second corn crop nears the pollination stage. After seeing Argentina's crop production fall to drought in 2018, noncommercial traders are finding another reason to be bullish and are holding on to the bulk of net longs that hit a new record high in early March. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bullish in corn with 333,416 net longs as of Apr. 24. Here in the U.S., USDA's Crop Progress report should show some corn planting progress later Monday, but the overall pace will remain slow with windy conditions in the western Plains again on Monday and moderate to heavy showers expected across the central Midwest this week. On the demand side, USDA said 57.7 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, a neutral showing that has total inspections down 19% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Technically, the trend remains sideways in July corn, but a close above $4.03 would turn the trend up, as it already is in new-crop corn. CME Group reported 10 delivery intentions in May corn early Monday. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.60 Friday, its highest price in 22 months and priced 39 cents below the July contract. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.22, still near its highest level in over three months, even though the yield on the 10-year T-note is back below 3%, dropping lower for a third consecutive day.

Soybeans:

July soybeans started higher early Monday with help from commercial buying in soybean meal, but the bullish start did not last as commercial enthusiasm disappeared, July meal ended $1.50, and July soybeans dropped 7 3/4 cents to $10.48 1/2. Later Monday, soybean traders will note both, corn and soybean planting progress in USDA's Crop Progress report as soil temperatures are gradually warming across the Midwest. The planting pace may not pick up much this week with moderate to heavy showers expected across the central Midwest. On the demand side, USDA said Monday morning that 25.0 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, a neutral amount that put total inspections down 12% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Earlier, USDA reported 4.4 million bushels (120,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to Argentina for 2018-19, another reminder of this year's drought. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bullish in soybeans, trimming net longs from 224,357 to 193,022 as of Apr. 24. For now, the trend is sideways in old-crop soybeans and up in new-crop soybeans with new-crop prices close to their contract highs. For May contracts, the CME Group reported 415 delivery intentions for soybeans, 52 for meal, and 638 for soybean oil early Monday. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.78 Friday, near its highest price in over a year and priced 79 cents below the July contract.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat closed up 12 cents and July K.C. wheat was up 7 cents at $5.37 1/2, helped by commercial buying in Chicago wheat and a seven-day forecast that has some rain for central Texas and Oklahoma, but only light amounts for the rest of the southwestern U.S. Plains. There is also a chance of severe weather in the region this week, just as the Wheat Quality Council's three day tour of HRW wheat crops starts on Tuesday. With USDA saying 49% of winter wheat in Kansas is rated poor or very poor, the market has low expectations for what tour scouts will find and DTN's Mary Kennedy will be providing daily reports. The main problem for all wheat prices is that there is plenty of old-crop supply available around the world and so far, crop conditions outside the U.S. are mostly favorable, but it is worth noting that Ukraine is looking at a dry five-day forecast and Australia is dry ahead of the next planting season. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials a little more bullish in K.C. wheat, having increased net longs from 48,887 to 54,253 as of Apr. 24. Technically, the trends remain sideways for the July contract of all three wheats, continuing to show support from the anticipation of lower production in the U.S. For May contracts, the CME Group reported 327 delivery intentions for K.C. wheat and MGEX reported 876 for Minneapolis wheat early Monday, but none for Chicago wheat. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.64 Friday, back near this year's high and 34 cents below the July contract. DTN's HRW index closed at $4.76, near its highest prices in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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