DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 3/4 cent in the July contract and down 1/2 cent in the December. Soybeans were down 4 1/4 cents in the July contract and down 3 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents in the July Chicago contract, up 6 3/4 cents in the July Kansas City, and down 5 1/2 cents in the July Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.31 at 89.66. June gold is down $5.50 at $1,348.00 while May silver is down 1 cent and May copper is down $0.0350. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 142 points at 24,606. June crude oil is down $0.26 at $68.21. June heating oil is up $0.0107 while June RBOB gasoline is up $0.0032 and June natural gas is down $0.069.

Corn:

July corn ended down 3/4 cent at $3.91 Thursday, staying in its sideways trading range while producers across the Corn Belt are mostly waiting for warmer weather to get started planting. Temperatures are gradually increasing into the weekend as this week's snow moves eastward into Pennsylvania and the extended forecast looks favorable for slow progress. On the demand side, corn exports remain a concern while Brazil's FOB soybean price is 15 cents cheaper than the price at New Orleans. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 43.0 million bushels (mb) and 63.7 mb respectively, a neutral-to-bearish showing that has total corn shipments down 20% in 2017-18 from a year ago with just over 4 1/2 months remaining. Fundamentally, the outlook for corn prices remains neutral with a whole new-crop season ahead. Technically, the trend remains sideways in July corn and is up slightly in new-crop corn. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.51 Wednesday, down from its highest prices since June 2016 and priced 33 cents below the May contract. Outside markets were mixed to lower for commodities while interest rate futures are lower and the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.31.

Soybeans:

July soybeans dropped 4 1/4 cents Thursday to $10.49 after USDA's weekly export sales report showed just 14.8 mb of soybean shipments last week, a new marketing year low. Export sales were less than a week ago at 38.2 mb with interest from an unknown and Mexico. The only specific sales mentioned for China was for a cancellation of 2 ms. While China continues to avoid U.S. soybeans, total U.S. soybean shipments are down 13% from a year ago and are putting pressure on USDA to raise its estimate of U.S. ending stocks for 2017-18. With the U.S. new-crop season about to begin, the fundamental outlook for U.S. old-crop soybean prices is neutral to bearish. Outside the U.S., the outlook is bullish as a combination of China's demand and Argentina's drought continues to keep Brazil's soybean prices near their highest level since July 2016. Technically, the trend is sideways in old-crop soybeans and up in new-crop soybeans. Inverses in new-crop futures spreads have backed down but are still bullish signs of demand for new-crop contracts. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.71 Wednesday, down from its highest prices in over a year and priced 71 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat was up 1 1/2 cents and July K.C. wheat was up 6 3/4 cents at $5.14 1/2, still finding support from drought conditions in the U.S. southwestern Plains that are not getting any better. September Minneapolis wheat lost 5 3/4 cents as Thursday's updated U.S. drought monitor showed moisture improvement in the Dakotas as the snow melts. Not much change was noted around the Texas Panhandle and southwestern Kansas where extreme to exceptional drought conditions dominate. There are light showers in the forecast for the southwestern wheat region on Friday and Saturday, but amounts are not expected to be enough to provide much stress relief to crops. Demand has been poor for winter wheat all season and that held true again Thursday. USDA said last week's export sales posted net cancellations of 2.5 mb and shipments of 16.6 mb, another bearish combination that was a new marketing year low for sales and has total shipments down 11% in 2017-18 from a year ago. New-crop wheat sales increased a little, to 51.0 mb, but overseas competition remains stiff. Fundamentally, the outlook for wheat prices remains limited by plentiful global supplies with the uncertainty of a new season ahead. China is expected to have hot and dry weather the next few days, but no significant problems outside North America are in view. Technically, the trends remain sideways for all three wheats. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.45 Wednesday, down from its highest prices in eight months and 31 cents below the May contract. DTN's HRW index closed at $4.50, down from its highest price in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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