DTN Midday Grain Comments

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 185 points. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 25 points lower. Energies are weaker with crude down $1.00. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle sharply higher. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 4.00.

CORN

Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade chopping lower in fairly quiet trade with spillover pressure from the softer wheat trade. Fieldwork is likely to remain slow with cooler temps and wetter weather for some of the belt this week, with warmer conditions following. Planting progress will likely be a few points behind normal this afternoon. Ethanol margins remain positive with usage likely to climb further into spring, with ethanol futures getting back towards $1.50, with a slight pull back so far this morning. The weekly export inspections were good at 1.504 million metric tons. On the May chart we are just above the 20-day at $3.82 3/8 which is support with resistance the 10-day at $3.87 3/8.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 2 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade staying squarely range bound with light day session selling. Meal is 2.50 to 3.50 lower and oil is 25 to 35 points lower. The recent pattern in South America should remain intact near term, allowing for greater progress in Brazil harvesting, with values remaining elevated for Brazilian producers to encourage harvest selling in the near term. Trade will be looking for signs of additional acres, especially with a slow start to planting in the Dakotas on spring wheat and the slow start to corn, with rains on the southern plains boosting double crop potential. Weekly exports inspections were soft at 444,987 metric tons. On the May contract, trade is back above the 10-day at $10.43 with resistance the post report high at $10.68.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 6 to 14 cents lower at midday with Kansas City wheat leading the pullback with broad rain coverage expected across the southern plains the next seven days. The weekly condition report will likely show near steady conditions with maturity continuing to lag normal with rains, and then a sustained warm up needed for improvement. Spring wheat seeding is behind in Russia for the moment, but should see better catching up coming forward, with the slide in the ruble helping their export advantage. The weekly export inspections showed improvement at 483,085 metric tons. On the May Kansas City contract support is at the 200-day at $4.82 with resistance the 50-day at 4.97.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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