DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 2 cents in the May contract and down 1 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 8 1/2 cents in the May contract and up 8 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 10 cents in the May Chicago contract, down 11 1/4 cents in the May Kansas City, and down 6 1/4 cents in the May Minneapolis contract. The March U.S. dollar index is up 0.33 at 90.02. April gold is down $7.70 at $1,317.90 while May silver is down 12 cents and May copper is down $0.0335. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 90 points at 24,848. April crude oil is up $0.19 at $61.15. April heating oil is up $0.0048 while April RBOB gasoline is down $0.0009 and April natural gas is down $0.057.

Corn:

May corn ended down 2 cents at $3.86 3/4, slowly falling back from Tuesday's high after testing both directions Thursday. Earlier, USDA said last week's export sales hit a new marketing year high of 98.6 million bushels, thanks to Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea -- business that was going to Brazil earlier in the season. Last week's corn shipments came in at 55.4 million bushels and put total shipments down 27% from a year ago, a neutral-to-bearish pace overall. Thursday's report gives hope that USDA's new 2.225 billion bushel export estimate is possible, but shipments have to stay at least that high every week to give corn a chance -- still a tall order. Thursday's new U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show drought in the western U.S. Plains, but most of the Corn Belt is drought-free and dry areas in Iowa and Missouri are expecting rain the next seven days. Plentiful U.S. corn supplies remain a bearish risk, but for now, the trend remains up in May corn. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.51 Wednesday, priced 38 cents below the May contract and down from its July high. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.33, finding support from Thursday's report of slightly lower jobless claims amid ongoing concerns over trade issues.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed up 8 1/2 cents at $10.40 3/4 Thursday after the National Oilseed Processors estimated 153.7 million bushels of soybeans crushed in February, up 8% from a year ago and more than was expected. Not surprising given the large crush, soybean oil stocks increased to 1.856 billion pounds at the end of February, up 5% from a year ago and also more than was expected. In spite of the bearish report for soy products, May meal was up $0.10 and May soybean oil was up 0.35. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 46.6 million and 33.1 million bushels, respectively, another bearish combination that has total soybean shipments down 12% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Argentina has some rain expected this weekend, but the overall forecast remains mostly dry and stressful to row crops. Fundamentally speaking, bearish concerns for soybeans include Brazil's big harvest, U.S. plantings this spring, and trade concerns with China and NAFTA. Technically, the trends remain up so far for May soybeans and meal, but upward momentum hasn't been seen since early March. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.53 Wednesday, falling back from its highest price in over a year and priced 79 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat dropped a dime and May K.C. wheat was down 11 1/4 cents at $5.13 1/2, even though the U.S. Drought Monitor still shows extreme drought conditions in the southwestern U.S. Plains and the seven-day forecast remains mostly dry for the region. On the other hand, winter wheat in the central western Plains will benefit from a broad coverage of precipitation that extends east to several winter wheat areas -- some of which are in the southeastern Midwest and have flooding concerns. This continues to be a tough environment for U.S. wheat exports. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 6.0 million and 12.3 million bushels, respectively, another bearish combination that has total wheat shipments down 8% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Technically, the trends are up in Chicago and KC wheat, but like soybeans, upward momentum in winter wheat disappeared after early March. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.54 Wednesday, down from its highest price in seven months and 35 cents below the May contract.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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