DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices were slightly higher again the third week of February 2018, according to retailers surveyed by DTN.

All eight of the major fertilizer prices were up slightly compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $460 per ton, MAP $496/ton, potash $345/ton, urea $357/ton, 10-34-0 $416/ton, anhydrous $495/ton, UAN28 $231/ton and UAN32 $265/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.41/lb.N and UAN32 $0.41/lb.N.

With retail fertilizer prices climbing higher over the last four months, I thought it might be interesting to look back at our data and see when the last time was that the price for each fertilizer was at the level it is currently. For some fertilizers, it has been a while since prices have been this high. For others, it has been less than a year.

For three fertilizers, the retail price is now the highest it has been in almost two full years.

DAP and MAP haven't been at their current level since the third week of July 2016 and the second week of July 2016. Those weeks, the prices were $464 per ton and $496 per ton, respectively.

With MAP currently closing in on the $500-per-ton plateau, the last time this fertilizer was that price or higher was the fourth week of May 2016 when the price was at $501 per ton.

Potash is the other fertilizer that hasn't been at its current price level in quite some time. The first week of August 2016 was the last time potash reached its current level with an average price of $346 per ton.

An interesting thing with these three fertilizers is how quickly the price has moved in recent months. For DAP and MAP, there was a fairly steep rise from last November to now, with prices climbing about $35 to $40 per ton. The retail price of potash has also moved about $30 per ton higher, but at a much slower pace, beginning way back in October 2016.

The remaining five fertilizers have returned to levels they were at a year or less ago.

The last time urea was at its current prices was the second week of March 2017 when the price was at $360 per ton. 10-34-0 last reached its current price level the first week of September 2017 when it was at $418 per ton; anhydrous the third week of June 2017 when it was $497 per ton; UAN28 the second week of July 2017 when it was at $235 per ton; and UAN32 the fourth week of November 2017 when it was at $271 per ton.

Much like DAP and MAP, anhydrous prices rose fairly steeply in a short amount of time, with prices up about $100 per ton from October 2017. The difference is that, according to DTN data, the price of anhydrous has a history of being much more likely to move higher or lower more quickly than the prices of both DAP and MAP, whose price movements are more flat.

Anhydrous is rapidly approaching the $500-per-ton level once again. The last time it was at that level was the second week of June 2017, when the price was right at $500 per ton.

Despite also being nitrogen fertilizers, UAN28 and UAN32 have not seen as steep of price increases as anhydrous. In addition, while the price of 10-34-0 has also moved higher during this period, it is only up about $13 per ton from October 2017.

Following increases in recent months, the prices of four fertilizers are now higher compared to last year. Anhydrous is now 1% more expensive, potash is 4% higher, DAP is 6% more expensive and MAP is 10% higher than last year.

The remaining four fertilizers are still lower in price compared to a year prior. Urea is 1% less expensive while both UAN28 and UAN32 is 4% lower and 10-34-0 is 6% less expensive than a year ago.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Feb 20-24 2017	433	452	332	359
Mar 20-24 2017	438	464	338	356
Apr 17-21 2017	438	466	339	352
May 15-19 2017	437	471	340	350
Jun 12-16 2017	437	470	341	338
Jul 10-14 2017	436	467	340	321
Aug 7-11 2017	434	462	339	311
Sep 4-8 2017	431	458	338	302
Oct 2-6 2017	425	453	348	323
Oct 27-Nov 3 2017	434	455	348	330
Nov 27-Dec 1 2017	435	460	342	340
Dec 25-29 2017	448	488	344	348
Jan 22-26 2018	458	492	344	353
Feb 19-23 2018	460	496	345	357
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Feb 20-24 2017	440	490	241	276
Mar 20-24 2017	441	507	248	280
Apr 17-21 2017	437	509	247	280
May 15-19 2017	436	510	248	283
Jun 12-16 2017	435	500	246	278
Jul 10-14 2017	431	451	235	268
Aug 7-11 2017	440	419	224	258
Sep 4-8 2017	418	413	215	248
Oct 2-6 2017	413	399	208	243
Oct 27-Nov 3 2017	405	401	208	262
Nov 27-Dec 1 2017	403	417	216	271
Dec 25-29 2017	407	468	216	254
Jan 22-26 2018	415	490	226	261
Feb 19-23 2018	416	495	231	265

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(AG/CZ)

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