DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge between Siberia and Alaska and the polar vortex extending from Alaska across Canada into Greenland. This is a very cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific. A migratory trough over the Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western and central U.S. and a ridge over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. The center of strong subtropical high pressure is located off the coast of the southeast U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement during the next 6 days. Fair-poor agreement days 7-10. We are leaning more towards the U.S. model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature some ridging over Alaska. A trough over northwest Canada and a strong ridge over northeast Canada and Greenland. This will be a cold pattern for most of Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough over the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge ove the western U.S. and a trough over the central and eastern U.S. extending into the western atlantic. This will be an active precipitation pattern under the trough aloft over the south-central and eastern U.S. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...89 AT NEW ROADS LA

LOW THU...33 BELOW ZERO AT MALTA MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY…TUPELO MS 3.25 INCHES.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement only on the first day of the 6-10 day period, poor agreement after that. Model differences and run to run changes make the extended range outlook somewhat uncertain today.

A portion of the western trough is expected to break off and move into the central plains region next Wednesday. This system moves southwest to northeast through the Midwest Thursday. The US model is stronger with the surface low and the upper level trough associated with this disturbance as it has been all along. Based on recent patterns I would lean towards the US model as it concerns this feature. Bottom line more snow and rain for the Midwest during the middle of next week. The US model deepens the trough even further as it moves over the northeast US region at the end of the period while also building the heights over the western US at that time. If verified this would mean drier, warmer weather west of the Rockies and it would also mean a less active weather pattern...at least for a time. It could also mean a turn to colder weather in the Midwest and east US areas. This type of pattern would be supported by the strong ridge moving westward off the Atlantic and Greenland into northeast Canada that has been on the maps this week. The European model is weaker with the trough as it moves through the northeast US and into the western Atlantic at the end of the period. This model is cooler through the northeast US but not nearly as threatening as the US model and also not as cold as the model was hinting at yesterday. The European model also reforms the western trough during the 8-10 day period and supports a more active weather pattern continuing.

My 6-10 day forecasts below are weighted towards the first part of the outlook period with some thought towards yesterday's ideas as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN,SUNFLOWER): Dry weather in the major corn and soybean areas continues to stress filling corn and soybeans with crop losses occurring.

No significant rain is being forecasted during the next 6-7 days, although temperatures are not as hot as they have been.

NORTH PLAINS/MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/HOGS): Another round of snow, ice and rain is expected to impact travel and transport in the western Midwest during the weekend period. A break in the pattern begins Sunday and lasts into Tuesday before a new snow-ice-rain event moves in Wednesday. Temperatures in North Dakota are expected to moderate during the coming days, decreasing stress to livestock.

SOUTH/EAST MIDWEST AND THE DELTA (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT): Recent and forecasted rains increase the risk for flash flooding and river flooding in these areas.

In some areas severe flooding is occurring and increasing.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): The main wheat producing areas will miss most of the rain being forecasted for the southeast and south-central areas during this week. Snow with up to 0.25 inch of melted precipitation will be possible from northern Kansas through Nebraska and northeast Colorado Saturday. No significant cold weather threat at this time.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS, CORN): Wet weather and below normal temperatures in the Mato Grosso region will cause delays to harvesting soybeans and planting second crop corn. This is somewhat unfavorable for development of corn and any late maturing soybeans. Mostly favorable conditions for filling, maturing and any early harvesting of soybeans in southern Brazil.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): Episodes of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the region during the next week or so. Heavy rainfall totals may occur in north and east areas. This maintains adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops but it may also lead to local flooding. Further rain at this point is neutral at best for filling crops and may be somewhat unfavorable if it leads to severe flooding and/or increased disease pressure. Reproductive maize in western areas may still benefit from added rainfall.

EUROPE (WINTER GRAINS AND OILSEEDS): Ukraine and west Russia are in the process of turning much colder at this time. This cold weather outbreak is expected to move westward well into Europe during the weekend and early next week. This will need to be watched as there is little snow cover to protect the winter wheat and rapeseed crops in Europe from very cold conditions that may occur.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Snow and freezing rain, trace-0.35 inch melted, during the past 24 hours.

Snowfall up to a few inches in northwest areas. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

East: Light to locally moderate rain through south and southeast areas yesterday or overnight. Light rain and drizzle elsewhere in the west, except from central Wisconsin northward we saw mixed precipitation. Drier, so far, in northeast areas. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Drier during the daytime hours today. Rain tonight will mainly occur in south and east Missouri. Snow and wind is expected during Saturday into Saturday night. Precipitation totals of up to 0.50 inch melted, heaviest north Iowa northward. Snow of 4-8 inches is possible in north Iowa, Minnesota and east South Dakota. Drier again during Sunday. Temperatures average below normal today and Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Light to moderate snow and rain Wednesday, possibly a little heavier. Temperatures average above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to below normal west and above normal east Wednesday.

East: Episodes of rain, showers and possibly thundershowers through southern and east-central areas today, tonight and during Saturday. Moderate to heavy rainfall totals mainly occurring along and south of a line stretching from Saint Louis to Detroit. These areas finally turn drier for Sunday. The balance of the region will be drier during today and early Saturday. Light to locally moderate showers later Saturday and Saturday night. Snow may occur mainly in west and north Wisconsin during this time. Drier through these areas Sunday as well. Temperatures average above normal during this period, well above normal through southern areas.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Light to moderate showers and possibly thundershowers Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday. Heavier rainfall may occur along and south of the Ohio river with this system. Snow may occur in the northwest portion of the region. Temperatures average above normal.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Precipitation near to above normal south and east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Light to moderate rain and some freezing rain through east and south Oklahoma and northeast Texas during the past 24 hours. A little light precipitation through eastern Kansas and southern Nebraska during this time.

Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Episodes of rain and possibly thundershowers through north-central and northeast Texas, south-central and east Oklahoma today and Saturday. Light snow develops through northwest areas tonight. Light to moderate snow with up to 0.25 inch melted through northern areas tomorrow. Drier Sunday. Temperatures average below to near normal during this period, except the southeast areas may be somewhat warmer at times.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only light showers developing through southeast areas Tuesday. Light to moderate precipitation east, drier west, during Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to below normal west and near to above normal east Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Precipitation near to below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to mostly below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday, although there is a slight chance for a brief light shower or two. Temperatures near to mostly below normal.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Tuesday and Wednesday, tending to favor northern areas. Temperatures near to above normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers through Mato Grosso, west and south Goias during the past 24 hours. Mainly dry elsewhere in Goias and through MGDS during this time. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers continue today through Sunday in Mato Grosso and Goias. Mainly dry in MGDS during this time.

Temperatures near to below normal, except possibly somewhat warmer in the south and east areas at times.

Scattered showers and thundershowers continue to favor Mato Grosso and Goias Monday but may expand to also include MGDS Tuesday or Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal in the west, near to below normal east, yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers possible in west and south areas Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier favoring Cordoba province during Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Dry or with only isolated light showers in the west today. Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers developing Sunday. Temperatures average above normal during this period.

A few light showers with locally heavier Monday into Tuesday. Drier again Wednesday. Temperatures may turn somewhat cooler during this period.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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