DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Row Crops Slightly Lower with Most Commodities

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
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(DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

Morning CME Globex Update:

At 8 a.m. CST, USDA announced 5.1 million bushels (130,000 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to unknown destinations for 2017-18. 4.0 million bushels (110,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations, half for 2017-18 and half for 2018-19. March corn and soybeans were off to a slightly lower start Thursday with little new happening to impact prices and most other commodities also starting lower.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones: Higher
U.S. Dollar Index: Higher
Gold: Lower
Crude Oil: Lower

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Corn:

At 8 a.m. CST, USDA announced 5.1 million bushels (130,000 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to unknown destinations for 2017-18. If you are waiting for a big move in corn, Thursday is probably not that day as March corn was starting down a half-cent with a 1 1/2-cent range overnight. USDA's weekly report of export sales has been pushed to Friday, due to Presidents Day, but we will see the Energy Department's report of ethanol inventory later Thursday morning. Thursday's satellite map remains dry for Argentina and southern Brazil while central Brazil sees more rain. Here in the U.S., current radar shows snow falling in Iowa and a mix of rain, ice, and snow around Ohio, but the flooding risk doesn't look as bad on Thursday with precipitation staying to the southeastern edge of the Midwest. Corn prices remains weighed down by heavy U.S. supplies, but for now, the trend in March corn remains up as prices hold near their three-month highs. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.36 Wednesday, priced 30 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in six months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.01 with most other commodities starting lower.

Soybeans:

At 8 a.m. CST, USDA announced 4.0 million bushels (110,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations, half for 2017-18 and half for 2018-19. Earlier, March soybeans were down 2 1/2 cents, easing back after prices achieved a new seven-month high on Wednesday. As far as Argentina and southern Brazil are concerned, the current weather map is dry and so is the seven-day forecast. Rain continues to cross central Brazil and may disrupt harvest at times, but is not seen as a significant bullish factor yet for either soybeans or corn. FOB soybean prices in both, Brazil and the U.S. made new highs this week, which is a curious sign of strong demand in the face of Brazil's big harvest. What has not yet been seen is an increase in the U.S. export pace, giving us a confusing fundamental picture. Technically, the trends remain up in March soybeans and meal. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.64 Wednesday, at its highest prices in seven months and priced 70 cents below the March contract.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat was up a penny, staying quiet as corn early Thursday. The National Weather Service still has a flood watch issued from eastern Texas to southern Ohio and some local areas did get heavy amounts the past 24 hours, but overall rainfall totals are not looking as threatening as feared. Much of the precipitation has already pushed eastward and is expected to stay near the southeastern edge of the Midwest the next few days while the forecast for HRW wheat in the western Plains remains mostly dry. Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed modest moisture improvement in Missouri and Illinois, but not much change otherwise. In the big picture, U.S. exports remain limited while the world has plenty of competing wheat to sell. The trends remain up in both, Chicago and K.C. wheat, but it may be difficult to push prices higher until we know more about 2018 crops. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.19 Wednesday, down from its highest price in six months and priced 28 cents below the March contract.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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Todd Hultman