DTN Early Word Grains

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

March corn was 1/4 cent higher, March soybeans were 1 1/4 cents higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 1 3/4 cents higher

CME Globex Recap:

So far on Thursday, trading in grains is quiet with most commodity prices starting a little above Wednesday's closes and the world's stock markets trading higher. Grains may not stay quiet however, after a busy day of reports that includes weekly export sales and a monthly crush estimate from NOPA.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 253.04 points (1.0%) higher at 24,893.49, the NASDAQ Composite gained 130.11 points (1.9%) to 7,143.62, and the S&P 500 was up 35.69 points (1.3%) to 2,698.63 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 229 points higher early Thursday morning. Asian markets were higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 310.81 points (1.5%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 599.83 points (2.0%), and China's Shanghai Composite up 14.20 points (0.4%). European markets were also higher with London's FTSE 100 up 42.95 points (0.6%), Germany's DAX up 115.38 points (0.9%), and France's CAC 40 up 77.86 points (1.5%). The euro was 0.0044 higher at 1.2485 while the U.S. dollar index was down 0.25 at 88.76. March 30-year T-Bonds were 3/32 lower at 143'09 while April gold was down $1.60 to $1,356.40. Crude oil was $0.31 higher at $60.82 and Brent crude was up $0.05 at $64.41. China's Dalian soybean futures were unreported, likely due to China's New Year, and Malaysian palm oil futures was up 0.2% overnight.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	Another day of dry weather in Argentina supports row crop prices.	1)	Cash corn prices near their highest offers in six months may tempt some to move corn.
2)	Old-crop soybeans closed at a new two-month high on Tuesday, joining the uptrend already in progress in soybean meal.	2)	New-crop soybeans near their highest prices in a year reflect bullish concerns, but could also entice sales.
3)	The seven-day forecast remains mostly dry for the U.S. Southern Plains HRW growing area.	3)	U.S. winter wheat prices have benefited from dry weather concerns, but we are a long way from knowing anything about how world wheat production will go in 2018.

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MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN March corn is up a quarter-cent early Thursday, trading quiet near its highest prices in three months while the seven-day forecast for Argentina remains mostly dry. U.S. corn exports have shown gradual improvement lately, but the pace is still a long way from bullish and we will get the next weekly update at 7:30 a.m. CST. Here in the U.S., the seven-day forecast looks familiar with generous precipitation expected in the eastern and southeastern Corn Belt while corn states to the West remain mostly dry. It is only mid-February, but we already have a flood watch in Ohio -- something we may see more about this spring. For now, the trend in March corn remains up with plenty in storage, waiting for a higher price.

SOYBEANS March soybeans are up 1 1/4 cents early, benefiting from a little higher start in March soybean meal, which is up $1.30. The dry seven-day forecast for Argentina continues to provide bullish motivation for this week's soybean prices and soybean meal is on track for a possible eighth consecutive gain on Thursday. Thursday's weekly export sales report is likely to have bearish news for soybeans again and China's New Year officially begins on Friday. However, the crush report from the National Oilseed Processors Association should counter some of the bearishness as soybean crush margins are at their highest level since 2002. The trend remains up for soybeans and meal, but in the case of soybeans, producers are also likely being tempted to make new-crop sales for at least part of the 2018 crop.

WHEAT New-crop July Kansas City wheat is up 1 3/4 cents early, holding near its highest prices in four months while U.S. winter wheat crops look to be in dry weather trouble early in 2018. Thursday morning's U.S. Drought Monitor is likely to look a little worse in a couple hours as rain has been missing from the southwestern Plains for about four months and the seven-day forecast is not offering much in the way of relief. Fundamentally, the catch is that there is plenty of wheat in the world and the export competition is hampering the ability of the U.S. to move its supplies. Technically however, futures prices have been gradually trending higher since December and may have farther to go, depending on how this drought plays out the next few months.

	DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.37	$0.01	-$0.31	Mar	$0.003
Soybeans:	$9.48	$0.05	-$0.69	Mar	-$0.001
SRW Wheat:	$4.27	-$0.05	-$0.29	Mar	$0.001
HRW Wheat:	$4.29	-$0.04	-$0.41	Mar	$0.004
HRS Wheat:	$5.84	-$0.01	-$0.16	Mar	$0.003

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Toddcan be followed throughout the day on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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