DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

March soybeans were up 11 1/2 cents early Monday with prices getting a boost from this week's forecast for hot and dry weather in Argentina. March corn is also receiving some benefit, trading up 2 1/2 cents while March Chicago wheat is getting early help from a mostly dry U.S. forecast. At 8 a.m. CST, USDA announced 4.5 million bushels (115,000 metric tons) of U.S. corn were sold to Egypt for 2017-18.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

At 8 a.m. CST, USDA announced 4.5 million bushels (115,000 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to Egypt for 2017-18. March corn was up 2 1/2 cents Monday, helped by early commercial buying and another hot and dry forecast for Argentina in the week ahead. In spite of plenty of U.S. corn supplies after this year's harvest, March corn prices have finally pushed up from their lows and are getting closer to challenging the December high of $3.60 1/2. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials a little less bearish in corn with 77,025 net shorts as of Jan. 23. Commercials reduced net longs from 70,407 to 58,168, but remain corn's primary source of support. The fundamental outlook for corn remains bearish while cash corn prices are gradually increasing, in line with their seasonal tendencies. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.25 Friday, priced 31 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in five months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.38 after the U.S. Commerce Department said personal incomes and spending were both up 0.4% in December. Outside commodities are mostly lower.

Soybeans:

March soybeans were up 11 1/2 cents early Monday, responding to a hot and dry forecast for Argentina in the week ahead. Some rain was reported in northern Argentina over the weekend, but not enough to take away crop concerns as soybeans come into their time for filling pods. There is rain in this week's forecast for central Brazil, a possible nuisance in the way of harvest. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still on the bearish side of soybeans with 67,090 net shorts as of Jan. 23. Commercials trimmed back net longs from 111,976 to 105,646, but remain supportive, even after soybean prices climbed higher since Jan. 12. The fundamental outlook still leans bearish with Brazil expecting a 4.0 billion bushel soybean harvest. Technically, the trend has turned higher in March soybeans with commercials as active buyers in the mid-$9s. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.17 Friday, near its highest in a month and priced 68 cents below the March contract.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat was up 5 3/4 cents Monday, helped by early commercial buying and another seven-day forecast that does not expect much precipitation in either the western or Southern Plains. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still heavily bearish in Chicago wheat with 95,971 net shorts as of Jan. 23. Commercials slightly increased net longs to 97,584. Since Jan. 23, Chicago wheat prices have been inching higher and that is likely putting pressure on noncommercials to lighten their short commitments. Like corn, the fundamental outlook remains bearish, but March Chicago wheat prices have finally been able to push up from their lows and are now getting closer to challenging resistance at $4.50. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.11 Friday, priced 30 cents below the March contract and at its highest price in four months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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