DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn wasdown a half centin the March contract and unchanged in the December. Soybeans were up 7 cents in the March contract and up 4 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 3 cents in the March Chicago contract, up 1 cent in the March Kansas City and down 1 1/2 cents in the March Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.11 at 90.25. February gold is down $1.60 at $1,331.50 while March silver is down 5 cents and March copper is up $0.0155. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 66 points at 26,138. March crude oil is up $0.12 at $63.43. March heating oil is down $0.0034 while March RBOB gasoline is up $0.0097 and March natural gas is down $0.014.

Corn:

March corn finisheda half cent lower at $3.52, staying quiet in its sideways range while a mix of snow and rain fell over much of the Corn Belt, offering some helpful off-season precipitation and making Monday's travel difficult from central Nebraska to the Great Lakes. Due to the government shutdown, it wasn't clear at the start of the day, if we would get a weekly inspections report, but USDA did report 26.3 million bushels (mb) of corn were inspected for export last week, a bearish amount that put total inspections down 36% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Before the shutdown, Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bearish in corn, increasing net shorts to 92,247 as of Jan. 16. Commercials remain corn's primary source of support, increasing net longs to 70,407. For now, the trend in March corn is sideways with plentiful supplies keeping a lid on prices. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.21 Friday, priced 32 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in five months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.11, not showing much change after the Washington Post reported an agreement was reached that could lead to government being reopened as early as Monday evening.

Soybeans:

March soybeans closed up 7 cents at $9.84 1/4 Monday in an odd day of trading. Soybeans gains came early in the day and were likely related to another weekend of dry weather for Argentina, but little else happened after the first half hour or so of trading. March soybean meal continues to be an excitable barometer of how things are going in Argentina and ended the day up $7.00 at $338.60, the highest close in over a month. USDA's inspections report did show a better weekly total of 52.2 mb for last week, but the pace of total inspections is still down 13% in 2017-18 from a year ago and below USDA's estimated pace. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bearish in soybeans, increasing net shorts to 78,648. Commercials increased net longs a fifth consecutive week to 111,976, the most since June and an aggressive show of support. Technically, the trend in soybeans remains down and the prospect of another 4.0 billion bushel crop from Brazil is bearish. Making the outlook less clear, however, is Argentina's weather and the active commercial response to be net long in soybeans. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.09 Friday, near its highest in a month and priced 68 cents below the March contract.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat closed up 3 cents at $4.25 3/4 after a relatively quiet day of low-volume trading that saw March K.C. wheat gain a penny. Both winter wheats are staying within sideways ranges as they work their way through a dry winter in the western and Southern Plains. Monday's weather map showed some snow in Nebraska and Kansas along with rain in the eastern Midwest, offering winter crops some moisture, but the rest of the week is expected to remain mostly dry up and down the western U.S. Plains. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bearish in Chicago wheat with a fairly heavy commitment of 95,164 net shorts as of Jan. 16 -- just when prices dipped to a low of $4.16 1/2. Commercials, on the other hand, continue to find value at these lower prices and increased net longs to 96,221. With traders holding such a heavy short position at such a cheap price, the scene seems set for short-covering, if only a bullish trigger could be found. For now, the trend in winter wheat remains sideways. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.92 Friday, priced 31 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.84, down from its highest price in five months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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