DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 1/4 cent in the March contract and was unchanged in the December. Soybeans closed up 3 cents in the March and up 1 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 3 1/4 cents in the March Chicago, down 2 1/4 cents in the March Kansas City, and down 1 cent in the March Minneapolis. The March U.S. dollar index is up 0.08 at 91.66. February gold is up $0.50 at $1,322.10 while March silver is up $0.01 and March copper is down 0.0320. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 142 at 25,218. February crude oil is down $0.51 at $61.50. February heating oil is down $0.0172, February RBOB gasoline is down $0.0226, and February natural gas is down $0.082.

For the week:

March corn closed up 1/2 cent and December closed up 1/2 cent. March soybeans were up 9 cents while the November was up 9 1/2 cents. March Chicago wheat was up 3 3/4 cents, March Kansas City wheat was up 10 1/4 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was up 12 cents.

Corn:

March corn ended up a quarter-cent at $3.51 1/4 Friday and up a half-cent from last Friday's close, not showing any hurry to leave its narrow trading range of over a month. Corn's bearish factors are well known; USDA's estimate of 2.4 billion bushels of ending U.S. corn supplies in 2017-18 and a slow pace of exports. That slow export pace dropped to an even lower gear Friday when USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 4.0 million and 25.9 million bushels, respectively, a bearish combination for the holiday week that included a new marketing year low for sales. Total corn shipments are now down 35% from a year ago. USDA also said U.S. ethanol exports were down 17% in November from a year ago, but the fact that Brazil was the top destination with the most ethanol imports from the U.S. since May was a second hopeful sign that Brazil's corn supplies are shrinking. The first sign was Brazil's higher FOB corn prices since mid-December. For now, the trend in March corn is holding sideways while cash prices continue to firm. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.17 Thursday, priced 34 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in four months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is up 0.08, staying fairly quiet after the U.S. Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased 148,000 in December, less than was expected. The U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% for December.

Soybeans:

March soybeans closed up 3 cents at $9.70 3/4 Friday, earning a 9-cent gain on the week with help from ongoing concerns of dry weather and hot temperatures in Argentina. On Thursday, a weekly report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said roughly four million acres of soybeans were at risk of not being planted due to dry conditions in the northern part of the country. Four million acres represents a 9% reduction from total plantings, if true. While Argentina's situation is bullish enough to give bearish traders pause, crop conditions are generally favorable in Brazil where rains have been generous and exports are more competitive with the U.S. So far in 2017-18, U.S. soybean exports are lagging, down 14% from a year ago after USDA reported a new marketing year low of just 20.4 million bushels of sales during Christmas week. For now, the trend in March soybeans remains down with commercials finding enough value at these lower prices to resist the trend. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.96 Thursday, priced 72 cents below the March contract and up from its lowest price in over two months. Among January contracts, delivery intentions totaled 21 for soybeans and 298 for soybean meal early Friday.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat ended down 3 1/4 cents at $4.30 3/4 Friday, backing down from Wednesday's new four-week high as warmer temperatures return to the Southern Plains the next several days. It's not that warmer temperatures will erase any damage done from last week's cold, but at least trader anxieties are soothed by the milder weather. In spite of this winter's cold weather and drier conditions, winter wheat supplies remain plentiful and exports are not offering much help. Earlier Friday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 4.8 million and 8.4 million bushels, respectively, a new marketing year low for wheat sales hardly worth mentioning. Total wheat shipments are now down 8% in 2017-18 from a year ago. For now and quite possibly the next few months, the trend in winter wheat remains sideways with little happening to change the minds of bearish noncommercial traders. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.02 Thursday, priced 32 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.90, its highest price in over four months.March Chicago wheat ended down 3 1/4 cents at $4.30 3/4 Friday, backing down from Wednesday's new four-week high as warmer temperatures return to the Southern Plains the next several days. It's not that warmer temperatures will erase any damage done from last week's cold, but at least trader anxieties are soothed by the milder weather. In spite of this winter's cold weather and drier conditions, winter wheat supplies remain plentiful and exports are not offering much help. Earlier Friday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 4.8 million and 8.4 million bushels, respectively, a new marketing year low for wheat sales hardly worth mentioning. Total wheat shipments are now down 8% in 2017-18 from a year ago. For now and quite possibly the next few months, the trend in winter wheat remains sideways with little happening to change the minds of bearish noncommercial traders. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.02 Thursday, priced 32 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.90, its highest price in over four months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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