DTN Early Word Grains

Five Gold Rings

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

March corn was 1 cent lower, March soybeans were fractionally higher, and March Chicago (SRW) wheat was 1 cent lower.

CME Globex Recap:

Friday morning, the fifth day of Christmas and the start of the final trading day of 2017, finds grains mostly lower. Soybeans were holding above unchanged as of this writing, while corn and wheat were lower. Other commodity sectors were supported by a weaker U.S. dollar with energies higher and metals and softs mostly higher. DJIA futures were also showing a solid gain, hinting at one last rally by U.S. equities to close out what has been a remarkable year.

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OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 63.21 points (0.3%) higher at 24,837.51, the Nasdaq Composite gained 10.82 points (0.2%) to 6,950.16, and the S&P 500 added 4.92 points (0.2%) to 2,687.54 Thursday. DJIA futures were 60 points higher early Friday morning. Asian markets closed mostly higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 19.04 points, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 55.44 points (0.2%), and China's Shanghai Composite up 10.79 points (0.3%). European markets were trading mostly lower with London's FTSE 100 up 28.51 points (0.4%), Germany's DAX off 48.18 points (0.4%), and France's CAC 40 down 5.07 points. The euro gained 0.0039 to 1.1981 as the U.S. dollar index fell another 0.34 to 92.33. March 30-year T-Bonds were 1/32 higher at 152'24 while February gold gained $2.10 to $1,299.30. Crude oil was $0.30 higher at $60.14 while Brent crude added $0.28 to $66.44. China's Dalian soybean and Malaysian palm oil futures were both lower again overnight.

BULL BEAR
1) Corn remains in a minor uptrend on its daily charts. 1)

Marketing year total exports of corn are expected to still be bearish following the release of Friday's holiday-delayed weekly update.

2) It's possible, but not probable, that soybeans see bullish export shipment numbers in Friday's holiday-delayed weekly update. 2) Soybeans, both futures and cash, will establish major bearish signals on their long-term monthly charts at Friday's close.
3) New-crop July winter wheat futures contracts remain in uptrends on their respective weekly charts. 3) Marketing year total export shipments of wheat are still expected to be bearish following Friday's holiday delayed weekly update.

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN The corn market was disappointing early Friday morning. Not because it was lower, that seems to have been the case more often than not over the last year, but because it couldn't be described as "fractionally lower following a quiet overnight session." Yes, the market did trade quietly overnight as volume (futures only) for nearby March came to only 2,600 contracts. But losses across the board were a full penny. Technically, there isn't much new to see here as 2017 comes to an end. The market's minor trend remains up on daily charts, the secondary trends on weekly charts are trying to turn up, and the market's major trend on its monthly charts remains down. As for the market's major major major major trend on its yearly chart, well, you'll just have to read this week's Newsom on the Market column. Fundamentally, traders continue to watch two things: Export demand, with the latest update on sales and shipments pushed back to Friday morning due to Monday's holiday, and South American weather. Neither of these are overly bullish heading into the last/first three-day holiday weekend of the old/new year.

SOYBEANS Soybeans have had a tough week to close out 2017 as old-crop March fell to a new 4-week low and new-crop November has equaled its four-week low of $9.70. Soybeans, both futures and cash (DTN National Soybean Index), are also in position to establish bearish technical signals on their respective long-term monthly charts, indicating a strong likelihood of continued pressure after the 2018 calendar is opened next week. Selling continues to come from both commercial and noncommercial traders, with the former indicated by strong downtrends (strengthening) carry in both March-to-May and May-to-July futures spreads. As for noncommercial traders, Friday afternoon's CFTC Commitment of Traders report could show this group moving to a net-short futures position (legacy, futures only) as of this past Tuesday. Fundamentally, traders aren't expected to get overly excited about Friday's holiday-delayed weekly export sales and shipment numbers, while concerns over Argentina's weather have also been deflated.

WHEAT Winter wheat contracts were lower early Friday morning, despite the fact forecasts continue to call for bitter cold across the U.S. Midwest (SRW) and Southern Plains (HRW) growing regions and a sharp sell-off by the U.S. dollar index. It's quite possible traders have simply gone home for an extended three-day holiday weekend, leaving uptrends in place on weekly charts for both new-crop July contracts. As for Chicago's long-term monthly chart, there isn't much to see. Nearby March continues to hover near major support at $4.31 having posted another lower month. For now winter wheat in general seems content to continue to go nowhere fast.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $3.17 -$0.01 -$0.35 Mar $0.012
Soybeans: $8.80 -$0.09 -$0.77 Mar $0.019
SRW Wheat: $3.94 $0.01 -$0.34 Mar $0.015
HRW Wheat: $3.75 $0.01 -$0.51 Mar $0.002
HRS Wheat: $5.95 -$0.02 -$0.24 Mar -$0.001

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

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