DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

At 8 a.m. CST, USDA announced China bought 9.3 million bushels (252,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans for 2017-18. Earlier, March soybeans were a few cents higher with some profit-taking possible ahead of the Christmas holiday. Corn and wheat were quiet, starting slightly higher.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Lower

Corn:

March corn was up a quarter-cent at the morning break, probably set for another day of quiet trading ahead of Friday's early close and Christmas holiday. Friday's weather map shows light patches of snow across the northern Corn Belt and rain from central Texas to western Tennessee. The rain will move eastward and has potential for heavier amounts later Friday that accounts for the bulk of the Corn Belt's precipitation in the week ahead. In South America, southern Brazil appears to be getting rain on Friday and the forecast remains beneficial for crops in the week ahead. As quiet as corn prices have been in the U.S., it is odd to report that FOB corn prices at Brazil's ports have jumped 32 cents the past eight days and sit at the equivalent of $4.23 a bushel, some 25 cents above prices at the U.S. Gulf. It will be interesting to see if U.S. corn sales start to pick up in the weeks ahead. For now, March corn remains in a downtrend with active commercial interest at prices in the mid $3s. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.14 Thursday, priced 37 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in two months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is up 0.10 on the final morning of trading before Christmas. Most U.S. grain futures close at 12:05 p.m. CST on Friday and will trade again on Tuesday morning.

Soybeans:

March soybeans were up 3 1/2 cents early Friday, possibly ready to end its streak of eleven lower closes in twelve days with help from bearish profit-taking ahead of the Christmas break. In an email from late Thursday, the National Grain and Feed Association explained that China's stricter requirements on U.S. soybean shipments were part of an agreement made in early December between USDA and Chinese officials. The email explained that shipments certified as having impurities of less than 1% will be cleared in China while shipments with impurities more than 1% will be subject to whatever China decides is appropriate -- possibly further inspection or cleaning. In the meantime, crop conditions continue to be largely favorable in South America with a broad coverage of rain in the seven-day forecast. The trend in March soybeans remains down. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.80 Thursday, priced 69 cents below the January contract and at its lowest price in over two months.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat was up a quarter-cent early Friday, on track for a decent gain this week if prices hold up. Sub-freezing temperatures reached the Texas Panhandle Friday morning and are expected to be even colder over the weekend. Winter wheat has a way of surviving these episodes, but if nothing else, noncommercials likely backed off on some of their short positions. Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed again large areas of abnormally dry conditions in the western Plains, possibly setting up another interesting situation for the 2018 wheat crop as the current seven-day forecast is also mostly dry. For now the trend in winter wheat is down, but there has been a bullish change in short-term momentum as the Northern Hemisphere makes the turn toward longer days. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.90 Thursday, priced 37 cents below the March contract and up from its lowest price in seven months.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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