DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 1/2 cent in the March contract and down 1/2 cent in the July. Soybeans were down 11 1/2 cents in the January contract and down 11 1/2 cents in the July. Wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents in the March Chicago contract, up 2 cents in the March Kansas City, and up 4 1/2 cents in the March Minneapolis contract. The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.02 at 93.00. February gold is up $8.60 at $1,257.20 while March silver is up 9 cents and March copper is up $0.0205. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 21 at 24,564. January crude oil is up $0.49 at $57.09. January heating oil is up $0.0051, while January RBOB gasoline is up $0.0225 and January natural gas is down $0.026.

Corn:

March corn ended down a half-cent Thursday at $3.48 1/2, still stuck like gum on a shoe to the bottom of its 2017 price chart. Ever since the Aug. 10 WASDE report came out with a higher-than-expected yield estimate of 169.5 bushels per acre and knocked December corn prices to their lowest close in 10 months, prices have been trickling lower to sideways to lower, in search of support. Fortunately for producers, commercials are finding good value at these cheaper prices, but noncommercials remain on the short side, finding no reason to argue with plentiful supplies and corn's meager export pace. Regarding exports, USDA reinforced the bearish view early Thursday, reporting last week's sales and shipments of corn at 34.1 million and 27.2 million bushels respectively. That bearish combination put total corn shipments down 37% in 2017-18 from a year ago with USDA still expecting South American competition to fade, likely in early 2018. Technically, the trend in corn remains down as prices continue to search for support with help from commercials. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.10 Wednesday, priced 39 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in two months. Early Thursday, there were 137 delivery intentions in December corn, the final day of trading for December grain contracts. In outside markets, February gold is up $8.60 after Wednesday's Fed decision showed two "no" votes -- a sign that further rate hikes will likely stay at a gradual pace.

Soybeans:

January soybeans closed down 11 1/2 cents at $9.67 3/4 Thursday, stopping just short of important support at $9.67 as this week's forecast for South America continues to show chances for light-to-moderate showers in southern Brazil and Argentina along with the usual wet pattern across central Brazil. As the new crop season advances without a significant weather threat, U.S. exports are lagging and January soybean prices are at risk of turning the trend lower on a close below $9.67. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 53.4 million and 46.3 million bushels respectively, a bearish combination for the week that has total soybean shipments down 13% in 2017-18 from a year ago. It continues to be puzzling that the U.S. export pace is so slow when FOB soybean prices at the U.S. Gulf are 33 cents below prices at Brazil's ports, but China has held back on U.S. purchases as the new crop develops. For now, the trend in January soybeans remains sideways with important support at the November low of $9.67. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.08 Wednesday, priced 72 cents below the January contract and down from its highest price in four months. Thursday's delivery intentions for December contracts totaled 123 for soybean meal and seven for soybean oil.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents at $4.18 1/4, helped by a light response of commercial and noncommercial buying after Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor showed expanded areas of dry conditions across the western and southern U.S. Plains. Of course, it's only December and there is plenty of time for the pattern to change, but noncommercial bears have been smug for a long time and aren't used to hearing anything remotely bullish. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 21.6 million and 11.1 million bushels, higher sales than we've normally seen, but still not enough to change the bearish pace. Total wheat shipments to date are down 8% in 2017-18 from a year ago. The winter is a little more interesting now with more color on the drought map, and occasional bouts of short-covering are possible. However, the overall trend in winter wheat remains down with commercials doing the heavy lifting of providing some contrary support. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.79 Wednesday, priced 38 cents below the March contract and near its lowest price in seven months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.56. Among December contracts, there were 20 delivery intentions for Chicago wheat and 97 for K.C. wheat for early Wednesday. December grain futures stopped trading earlier Thursday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BAS)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.