DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1 1/4 cents in the March contract and up 1 cent in the July. Soybeans were up 3 1/2 cents in the January contract and up 3 1/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed up 6 cents in the March Chicago contract, up 5 cents in the March Kansas City, and up 7 cents in the March Minneapolis contract. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.30 at 93.78. February gold is up $8.50 at $1,250.20 while March silver is up 27 cents and March copper is up $0.0325. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 113 at 24,618. January crude oil is down $0.34 at $56.80. January heating oil is down $0.0237 while January RBOB gasoline is down $0.0477 and January natural gas is up $0.042.

Corn:

March corn ended up 1 1/4 cents Wednesday at $3.49 on slight volume as grains continue to provide little appeal to investors this time of year while bitcoin is all over the headlines and the stock market is making new highs. The Federal Reserve also put a slight damper on commodities appeal late Wednesday when it raised the federal funds rate a quarter-percent to a range of 1.25% to 1.50%, as was expected. Corn itself, is not making much news these days, but did see a slight 50 million bushel drop in USDA's latest ending stocks estimate, thanks to higher ethanol demand. The U.S. Energy Department said Wednesday that ethanol production slipped from the previous week's record high of 1.108 million to 1.089 million barrels per day, which is still a high level and an important source of support for corn prices. Ethanol inventory dropped slightly, from 22.5 million to 22.4 million barrels. Technically, the trend in March corn remains down, but with commercials showing interest at these cheap prices, downside risk should be limited. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.08 Tuesday, priced 40 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in two months. Early Wednesday, there were 266 delivery intentions in December corn. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.30 in active trade, as traders noticed two no votes in Wednesday's decision by the Fed to raise the federal funds rate.

Soybeans:

January soybeans closed up 3 1/2 cents at $9.79 1/4 Wednesday on light volume within a narrow range. Wednesday's reminder from USDA that soybean exports have been slower than expected did not help prices as they continue to mark time, waiting to learn more about South America's next crops. This week's forecast looks crop friendly with more chances for rain in southern Brazil and Argentina than have been seen in several weeks. Heavier amounts continue to work across central Brazil. Noncommercial traders are net long in soybeans and have not found a significant crop problem yet as we reach the southern equivalent of mid-June. So far, the trend in January soybeans remains sideways with important support not far away, at the November low of $9.67. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.04 Tuesday, priced 72 cents below the January contract and down from its highest price in four months. Wednesday's delivery intentions for December contracts totaled 110 for soybean meal and 79 for soybean oil.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat did not find any more trading volume than other grains on Wednesday, but at least there was enough commercial buying to lift prices off their contract lows and up 6 cents on the day, to $4.16 3/4. Wednesday's higher ending stocks estimate from USDA was no surprise, but it was interesting to see its estimate of world wheat production hit a new record high in the same season that U.S. wheat plantings fell to their lowest level on record. Here in the U.S., the seven-day forecast remains mostly dry for the western Plains and it will be interesting to see USDA's estimate of winter wheat acres on Jan. 12, especially as cash HRW wheat prices are not as low as last fall, but still near their lowest levels in 12 years. Technically, the trend in winter wheat remains down and it is likely that noncommercials added to their short positions over the past week. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.72 Tuesday, priced 38 cents below the March contract and at its lowest price in seven months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.56. Among December contracts, there were 206 delivery intentions for Chicago wheat, 18 for K.C. wheat, and 83 for Minneapolis wheat early Monday. December grain futures expire early on Dec. 14.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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